‘I will have to raise taxes… This needs to be done, as the financial situation is catastrophic’. According to French media, these were the words of the new French PM explaining to people the need to increase taxes. Who will feel the increase and how did France end up at the edge of a financial collapse?
France is sick financially: ‘the patient’ is having fever, with the future presented only in dark colours and doctors not being able to agree on the treatment. Hardly had he taken the PM appointment, when Michel Barnier made it clear that the situation is ‘very serious’.
Yet, the French media note that in such a way the newly minted PM is letting citizens know that ‘he inherited a challenging situation, which he personally did not cause’. The facts speak for themselves. Sovereign debt reached EUR 3.16 trillion, which is 110.7 per cent of GDP. In May, S&P rating agency lowered the country’s credit rating from AA to AA- specifically emphasizing that it does not expect the budget deficit will return to the level of three per cent of GDP by 2027.
Three per cent is the maximum allowed deficit level established in the EU, and France will also face unpleasant conversations for having breached this line, already in Brussels. The former European Economic Affairs Commissioner Perer Moscovici noted speaking of his home country: ‘We have lost control of our finances… If we do nothing, our sovereign debt from 110 per cent GDP will reach 124 per cent GDP in 2027’, which will make as much as EUR 3.8 trillion.
Reports on the sickness of the French economy started to appear quite a while ago mentioning the gap between ‘official statements of France being capable to stand to challenges’ and the actual ‘prolonged stagnation’. The economy grew by just 0.3 per cent, with the average Eurozone growth rate of 0.5 per cent and that of 2.5 per cent for U.S. economy.
For France, this means that it ended up in a deadlock and so far, nothing indicates it will be able to find a way-out without taking significant efforts. ‘Recognizing that the situation is very serious first of all allows preparing people for having to take hard decisions, Franceinfo reports. They will have to either cut costs considerably or increase debts’. It is actually a recognition that economic growth sources are depleted and that the French will have to tighten their belts.
Unsurprisingly, in such a context the rating of the French president hit the new low. The poll published on September 24 shows that only a fourth of the French feel positive about Macron’s work, which is the lowest for the whole time of its presidency. Besides, just 39 per cent of the respondents believe Michel Barnier to be ‘a good’ prime minister.
French journalists did not miss the chance to take a swipe on President Macron and the long-lasting Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, now the former one, for letting the debt increase by a trillion euro since 2017. There is an ongoing debate about who deserves the ‘Mr. Trillion’ title, the minister or, still, the president.
But there is another side to this matter: the money discussed here is not just some phantom trillion in a vacuum. It is schools, hospitals, pensions, public servants’ salaries, the recent Olympic Games, after all. The whole prosperity of the French state and relative well-being of its citizens.
But further on, it is getting harder for the Finance Ministry to make ends meet. Costs are outpacing revenues: de-industrialisation, energy transition, crises in export markets, domestic issues such as bureaucracy, which leaves so few opportunities to develop new sectors, have repeatedly hit the French economy hard. Each time drafting a budget for the following year looks more like a ‘rob-your-belly-to-cover-your-back’ exercise.
For many years already, the French government has been spending more than it earns running next generations into debts. And today it looks like present generations have to pay them. On the one hand, the situation is really difficult and something needs to be done, on the other, doing something means already recognizing that Macron’s and Le Maire’s policies have failed.
And the current balance of political power in France is such that any attempts of radical change can cost Barnier too much. He is, initially, a figure of compromise moved ahead not to give real power either to the far-right or the far-left, and now the Macronists have found that he somewhat refuses to obey them.
‘At our meeting, Michel Barnier said he would raise taxes’, the former Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin said a few days ago. ‘Michel Barnier favours the excess profits tax and taxes for the richest individuals’, the source added. ‘Barnier believes that at the time of Macron, there was an unprecedented enrichment of the most well-off people in France’, the third source said, adding fuel to the flame. Barnier himself allegedly said the following: ‘I will have to raise taxes, not because I want to, but because this needs to be done, as the financial situation is catastrophic’.
Heavy artillery represented by the Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau immediately started to defend Barnier. He recommended, on the one hand, cutting budget expenditures and raising taxes on the richest people and on big corporates in a way to reduce the deficit to the required 3 per cent, on the other. ‘We must lift the ban on raising taxes’, said de Galhau.
In his statement at France 2 channel, Barnier promised that he ‘would not increase the tax burden for most of the French who pay more taxes than anyone else in the EU’ and that ‘neither the poorest people, nor those working or the middle class’ would pay more. At the same time, he does not exclude that the rich will have to loosen their pockets together with ‘some corporates’. Another pending issue is the increase of property tax, which will be discussed with other members of the Government.
Who are those rich people the French government wants to take excess money from? In France there is an official threshold defining whether you are a rich person. If you have EUR 3,860 net of the taxes per family member per month, you are considered a rich person here. According to this system, 4.7 m, or 7 per cent, of the French are considered to be rich, which also puts the LVMH owner and an Air France pilot on the same scales.
However, as French citizens already pay high taxes, many political parties are strongly against any raises, including the Macronists and the National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Also, it is important not to forget that money tends to migrate where less of it needs to be given away. In other words, super-rich people are not happy about paying more taxes and, if forced to do so, they will simply move to different tax jurisdictions.
That is why, despite all Barnier’s soothing remarks, the French are nervous. All the more so, with other suggestions also being considered, for example, to freeze the income tax scale, which used to be calculated based on the inflation rate. This will allow taking more taxes from almost all population groups including those receiving pensions and benefits. And in any case, it looks like the age of financial sobering is coming for all French people after decades of excessive expenses and spending.