Europe Making It Big Over the Middle East Drama

17.11.2023

The impression is that the EU is very much politically viable and its leaders can weigh in on a range of subjects. At the end of the day, everyone benefits the situation, except for the Palestinians and regular Europeans.

The absurdity of European politicians discussing the Middle East’s plight easily outmatches their stance on the Ukrainian conflict.

On the surface, the EU elites are primarily concerned about having to get along with Muslim nations while keeping Israel’s potential backlash in check. That is why, unlike their tussles with Russia that see European politicians act largely in unison, the EU’s leading governments addressing the Palestinian crisis is indicative of an internal rift.

The reality is way simpler, though. Israel’s tensions with its neighboring states are no big deal for European pols. What it does is effectively spawn new media narratives that feed an allegedly hectic foreign policy agenda like hosting summits, perplexing the press, and virtue-signaling to their traditional partners in the Middle East. Conveniently enough, it packs high entertainment value, ushers in domestic plotting opportunities, and serves as a red herring for their protracted standoff against Russia.

The European political class treats the belligerents in Gaza and at the Israel–Lebanon border roughly the same. Josep Borrell as chief of the European diplomacy aptly summarised their stance, calling Europe ‘a garden’ and adding that ‘most of the rest of the world is a jungle’. Let’s face it: the EU has no real horse in the Middle Eastern race. After all, it is starkly different from Ukraine that they explicitly view as their own backyard. Hence the open discussion of the Middle East crisis among the EU member states.

Indeed, the discussion is there — it is heated and it is ongoing. A couple of days ago, French president Emmanuel Macron even outraged Israeli officials as he dared to, quite publicly, bring up the spiralling death toll among women and children in Gaza. Except he then placed several calls to the Israeli president to make it clear that begrudging the Palestinians’ plight was not tantamount to condemning the Israelis. But let’s give him that: pointless calls are par for the French leader’s course as they further spice up his usual theatrics.

Some spectacular feats of high-profile infighting were shown by the EU biggest guns. After Josep Borrell has openly feuded with Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, the European media are now having a field day chewing over just this as opposed to, say, the plight of the Ukrainian government. The truth of the “hotly contested” matter is that the German politician has adopted an emphatic pro-Israeli stance, whereas the Spanish diplomat is pandering to Palestinian sympathisers. The resulting impression is that the EU is very much politically viable and its leaders can weigh in on a range of subjects. At the end of the day, everyone benefits the situation, except for the Palestinians and regular Europeans. The former are headed for death and destruction, while the latter should be eyeing a flotilla of boats carrying Middle Eastern refugees.

Importantly, the EU’s overlords in Washington are not too harsh on Europe, either. The US leadership believes that Europe frowning upon Israel wiping Palestinians off the map serves as an opportune dig at the Israeli government. It will surely not change Israel’s strategy a notch, but come on, is this change even negotiable? Unlike the minor-league European plotters, the Americans can and indeed do go global. Europe’s dithering benefits them in a sense that it helps them wink at the Arab nations along the lines of, ‘Sure enough, we are siding with Israel, but hey, our junior partners are allowed to question its strategy.’

Truth be told, the Middle East crisis gives Europe a much-needed break. As the Americans are getting increasingly involved in the Gaza action on the Israeli side, their browbeating the EU into helping Kiev subsides. Moreover, the Americans are apparently having a hard time waging two simultaneous wars. As the US campaign to bankroll Kiev has tapered off, the EU leaders can start haggling with their bosses from across the pond. What is more, we are already witnessing top EU member states discuss new financial and military aid packages for with muted vehemence.

On the other hand, the Middle Eastern bloodbath has little chance of messing with the European leaders’ current hand. There is no denying that Europe is full of Muslims. Germany and France are home to the largest communities, with roughly 4.76 mln (a total population of 84 mln) and 4.7 mln (a total population of 68 mln) residents, respectively. Italy ranks third, with almost 2.2 mln Muslims (a total population of 60 mln). Mind you, these are just permanent residents and refugees do not count as such. But even these seemingly whopping figures do not automatically make Muslims a top concern with the EU elites. Riot police armed with tear gas and rubber bullets can always coerce disgruntled suburban folks into obedience in Berlin, Paris, and Rome alike.

The only apparent wrinkle in the whole Middle Eastern saga Europe is facing is a potential fossil fuel price hike. In this regard, Europe’s leading players do not want the conflict to escalate further and involve Iran. If attacked by Israel or the US, Iran will have difficulty selling crude oil to China. The latter will therefore start buying it someplace else, making these resources less available to Europeans and thus causing a spike in prices. As a result, Europe’s top governments will have to pull the plug on subsidising their industrial behemoths so that a halted drop in production does not drive consumer prices. This consideration may have practical implications for European policy-makers. Except they cannot affect it, either. That is why all they can do is lull themselves into a false sense of security, citing high numbers for their gas storage facilities and forecasting a warm winter season.

Life is now much easier for Europe. Its effective clout does not stretch beyond countries like Georgia or Moldova. Okay, maybe one can add the ill-fated former Yugoslavia, except it is mostly dominated by the US and their compliant island PMC otherwise known as the UK. Elsewhere, though, Europe does not need to worry about their role in the crises. It is glaringly obvious that their role is non-existent.

However gritty, top European nations were unable to de-escalate the Ukrainian crisis in early 2022. Now their hopes for a peace deal between Israel and its neighbors and their take on the conflict are unwarranted and largely unwanted.

Thus, every emerging global conflict will furnish the EU with new opportunities to brush up on its top-tier political feuding skills. Importantly, this is not to say that Europeans will remain tight-lipped. Far from it, the less influence they exert, the shriller the official statements they make. This is very much illustrative of Europe’s current role in global affairs. But European politicians still jump at the opportunity to do the only thing they are supremely proficient at. The fine art of chinwagging, that is.

By Timofei Bordachev

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