There are two things European elites can be really afraid of when it comes to their relations with the new American administration. And the possible decision of the Trump administration to continue the military confrontation against Russia in Ukraine, while shunning all the costs, is not the most critical of the two.
We are a long way from the idea that the inauguration of the new American president will revolutionise America’s domestic and external policies. It is very likely most of the loudly stated goals will either be unattainable or failures will have to be claimed to be victories. But even what is declared as an action programme is enough for a high-pitched response from Europe, the region being most miserably dependent on America and at the same time capitalizing on modern international politics to the strongest extent.
Russia’s immediate neighbours in the West have been living in such ambiguity for several decades already.
Europe’s war and political ‘backbone’ was broken during the Second World War. First, through the slashing victory of the Russian military putting an end to the last nexus of continental militarism. Second, through the consistent policy of Americans in relation to those European countries, which they managed to bring under their control in 1945. This policy focused on the targeted deprivation of Europeans of even the least capability to define their place in global affairs themselves. Britain preserved at least some combat instinct being the only power of the European Big Three, which Russia has not beaten. But its material resources have been so small for a long time already, letting them act only as an American ‘assistant’.
In the case of Italy and Germany things were simple: they were defeated and brought under U.S. direct control. For the remaining countries, it rightly focused on the creation of controllable political and economic elites. Now this approach has simply reached its absolute peak: European public figures are mid-tier managers within the U.S. global influence framework. There are no others at the top there.
In exchange for this misery, Europeans (elites and the society) received from U.S. the most preferential access to the perks of globalisation. They gained what they wanted without struggle and much competition. The combination of these two features caused a unique situation: while the parasitism of U.S. is based on its force, for Europe its similar position in the world is underpinned by its weakness.
European politicians like to keep talking about the need to overcome this weakness. Our common favourite Emmanuel Macron has been especially successful in doing this. This is, apparently, where Donald Trump’s administration is pushing them.
So, it is quite difficult to understand why European politicians are concerned about the intentions of U.S. new leadership. Well, yes, everything said looks quite logical and we already heard it when Trump became the White House master for the first time in 2016. But, effectively, much room for questions remains. And it is hard to find, actually, what Europeans can frown on in these plans.
A reference to the demand of the Republican government that Europeans significantly increase their defence costs looks completely odd. During the three recent years we have been hearing European leaders say they are actively preparing to a war against Russia and ramping up their resources for this. German, French and British governments have repeatedly spoken of their willingness to increase spending on the weapons and infrastructure needed for a strife in the east. Considering this, it is hard to understand the reasons for their concerns about Washington’s demand to increase military spending to 5 per cent GDP.
Moreover, we know, based on most profound expertise, that the systemic Russophobia and military hysteria mongering are currently the key ways for the survival of European elites. This is confirmed by simple observations of ordinary Europeans well-disposed to Russia. In case European elites are really gearing up for a war against Russia, they should welcome Trump’s demands to increase military spending. Or, at least, not to express concerns over this matter. Or, they might be not be completely honest speaking of their intentions in their relations with Russia.
We have also been constantly hearing that politicians and diplomats in Europe are alarmed by the disrespect of the new American leadership of international law and various organisations representing it. However, the whole world had multiple chances to witness that Europeans had had quite lax attitudes to rules and norms if their interests required this. In 1999, these were the European powers providing most of the forces for NATO’s aggression against sovereign Yugoslavia. For instance, the number of assault flights against peaceful Serbian cities of the French air forces exceeded those of the American forces.
In 2011, Europeans acted in direct violation of the Security Council resolution on Libya when they needed to finish the overthrow of the legitimate Muammar Gaddafi’s government taking place there. Today, European politicians have been lining up to make appointments with the regime, which has taken over the power in Syria. Let alone the involvement of EU states in ‘the sanctions’ of the West against Russia, which are illicit under international law. In other words, Europeans’ statements regarding the withdrawal of U.S. from international treaties look somewhat flimsy. The same relates to rights and freedoms, which are being restricted in Europe much wider than in most other countries.
Now, what exactly might Europeans and their political elites be afraid of when it comes to relations with the new American administration? First of all, of course, those in power: no one has been pretty much interested in ordinary voters’ opinions in the Old World for a long time already.
One can guess that their concerns are based on the fear the U.S. will completely abandon Europe leaving behind its fosterlings. This matter is also being actively debated by politicians and experts. But in this case the reasons of this fear are not clear, as Europe cannot threat virtually anyone without the American protection.
We are a long way from thinking that Russia might contemplate a military attack against major Western European states, even technically. It does not have any grounds for doing this. As to the fate of the Baltic provinces, countries like Germany, France and Britain do not really care about it at all. And it was not Germany’s federal chancellor blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline. Moreover, Europe knows Russians’ goodness and pragmatism much better than anyone else.
The only assumption, which can be considered valid today is that Europe can fear two probable developments in American politics. The first is the Trump administration’s decisions to continue the military confrontation against Russia in Ukraine shunning all the costs. There is no doubt U.S. has sufficient political resources to make Europeans take their last shorts off but to keep arming Kiev’s regime. The second is that European politicians are simply afraid of any changes in their usual way of life.
The first issue can be solved through direct negotiations between Russia and U.S., which would lead to a stable piece with guarantees. The second, though, which is Europeans’ reluctance to change anything at all, is much more serious. Following centuries of glorious and rampant history, Europe is turning into ‘a black hole’ of world politics, without really any good possibility to do anything about this.