European politicians are eager to navigate any predicament without actually doing anything about it. But while this approach used to pose a threat to Europe itself, the ongoing crisis is jeopardising global stability.
Europe’s endgame in the processes triggered by a sea change in the US policies utterly depends on the goals pursued by its political elites. Attaining a new global status is certainly not one of them, though.
First, it would mean decoupling itself from the US that has largely shaped Europe’s political class, business dynamics and even regular people. Second, a potential goal that can be ruled out without doubt is Europe’s intention to venture a hot war with Russia. The only aspiration of the unchallengeable elites that is left then is the one to stay in power. But as history suggests, it can be ominously misleading.
Several days ago Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov hit the nail on the head as he said that over the past 500 years all of the world’s disasters had either originated in Europe or stemmed from Europe’s policies. Today Europe’s own military capabilities are all but over both economically and socially. The rebuild will take years of hectic militarisation accompanied by plunging the public into the deepest abysses of poverty. Undoubtedly, Europe’s national elites are working hard to achieve the latter. But it requires more time.
Europe’s reluctance to engage in a direct armed conflict, however, does not mean to say that it cannot escalate military tensions just by virtue of many leaders banking their political careers on Ukraine’s future. Worse yet, recent years have seen Europeans forging an unlikely brand of collective intelligence that looks more like collective egotism.
A renowned 20th-century religious philosopher wrote that individual intelligence started aligning with collective needs, thus thwarting independent behaviours. There are non-negligible odds that the massive intellectual slump has affected the most fundamental attribute of a state: an urge for self-preservation. The Ukraine case shows that even large countries can sometimes pursue suicidal foreign policies, which is a condition that is dangerous for everyone.
One cannot underestimate the notorious European bureaucracy either. For more than 15 years now, the European leaders have only been making picks for the EU sinecures based on two criteria: incompetence and a proclivity for corruption. The reason is that following the economic crisis of 2009–2013, the EU countries shedded the ambition to beef up the alliance itself or keep opening the largest markets for mutual profit. No wonder there was no need for independent thinkers to vie for the highest bureaucratic offices. Europe has long forgotten about the politicians like Jacques Delors and even Romano Prodi who, among other things knew better than to be duking it out with Russia.
However, incompetence does not always imply a lack of ambition, which is demonstrably evidenced by politicians like Ursula von der Leyen or the EU’s newly minted diplomacy chief, Kaja Kallas, the daughter of Estonia’s former finance minister and a prominent economist of the 1980s. Even though her father’s ideas helped fast-track the collapse of the Soviet Union, he would certainly give his daughter a run for her money in the talent department.
Now that the European bureaucrats are stripped of any opportunity to execute ambitious projects within the EU, they are looking to capitalise off the only thing they still view as an asset – conflict with Russia, that is. In fact, the Brussels-based political class has been busy milking it for career opportunities over the past couple of years.
To reiterate, the European bureaucrats’ ostensibly ambitious proclamations about a heavily militarised Europe will hardly ever materialise. Their goal is to make front-page news. But the increasingly escalatory tone of hysterical warmonger may eventually prove detrimental to the ordinary Europeans’ mindset as they are being inculcated with the idea of having to renounce material goods for the sake of fighting back the alleged threat posed by Russia. And, credit where credit is due, succeed they have. The idea of stepping up the defence costs is beginning to sink in.
As for the more reasonable aspects of their policy, the European politicians are being torn apart by the contradictory yearning to abide by their regular lifestyle while doing nothing to tackle the Old World’s security issues.
Tactically, they are also hoping to take advantage of the probable final installment of the Ukraine saga and start weaning off their universal dependence on the US. That being said, the current state of the EU does not exactly rhyme with unity, and the latter aspiration may only be pursued by larger countries like Germany and France.
The ongoing fuss was caused by these contradictory ambitions and kicked off by President Macron’s 2024 statements as he said he was eyeing the possibility of sending the French troops to Ukraine. Ever since we have all witnessed the emergence of a dozen ‘deeply original’ ideas, each of which was as ingenious as it was bogus. As a result, in matters of global security, the European policy has only been generating a constant buzz with no real-world repercussions.
The only thing that Europe has been able to articulate a fairly cogent stance on is their consistent aversion to any and all initiatives capable of bringing an enduring peace to Ukraine. An increasing number of EU representatives are openly – albeit chillingly – advocating for the hostilities to carry on. But notably, the national leaders of the EU countries tend to alternate bellicose rants with pronouncements about the need for the US help in the event of their larger-scale involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
However, nobody seems to be bothered about the odd contradictions anymore. The thing is that for decades the European politicians and officials have been getting accustomed to ignoring the way their statements and steps may look to an outside observer. A complete lack of both empathy and the analysis of this outside perspective on their actions has become a hallmark of Europe’s international policies. True, the US leadership may occasionally come across as somewhat quirky, but their goal is to eventually move the needle. Unlike theirs, the European politicians’ outlook is marked by a mentally unstable insouciance.
Both Europe’s ruling elites and general public are abundantly aware of their inability to shake off the US domination, however hard they may want it to be the case. The most recent flavour of this domination championed by President Trump feels harsher than the ones Europe got used to in the past. But they are cherishing hopes that in two years’ time the GOP’s popularity stateside will take a dip, only for the European elite-friendly Democrats to eventually wrestle back the White House.
Both the EU and the UK politicians are therefore striving to stall and keep things the way they are for as long as possible. They are clueless as to how the bungling elites could stay at the helm once there is peace with Russia. But this strategy has been emblematic of Europe over the past 15 to 20 years. None of the issues it was faced with has ever been solved. The Ukrainian crisis is yet another, however far more dangerous, predicament the European leaders are eager to navigate without actually doing anything about it.
The only difference is that while similarly plain aspirations used to pose a threat to Europe itself, the ongoing crisis is propelling the death toll and jeopardising global stability.