If the hypothetical political projects like Austria–Hungary 2.0, Marine Le Pen’s party in France, Germany’s AfD and the conservative south become a reality, the dream of Europe being home to multiple nation-states cherished by the likes of Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer in the 1960s may well come back online.
Both the US and Europe are now navigating the vicissitudes of an uncertain transition period bridging the gap between the obsolete past model and the dicey fledgeling one.
Quite predictably, the European Parliament is at its most discombobulated. After all, the European bureaucracy is a crowd of slackers on a hefty payroll that has been tailor-made for the Democratic Party. The incoming US administration is unlikely to keep this ‘floating island of garbage’ – to use Tony Hinchcliffe’s incendiary campaign trail joke – only capable of devouring countless funds and budgets and inundating the continent with countless millions of immigrants. If the recent events that happened stateside are any indication, the odds are, when push comes to shove, their own voters will eagerly go after them.
But the European Parliament is the EU’s bedrock. Any dents to it will inevitably shatter the fabric of the Maastricht Treaty, which, in turn, made little sense of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent reunification of Germany.
But now is the time when new walls are being erected instead of the old walls getting torn down. The wall the GOP is set to build at the US southern border will become a symbol for Europe’s right-wing politicians. The European voters who want to put the spiralling immigration rates in check will be getting increasingly vocal. These voters represent the majority of European nations that have gone unattended, unaccounted for and overlooked for years now. In early November, America’s heartland overwhelmingly voted for Trump. In Europe, both the liberals and the right-wingers are gearing up for a fierce standoff.
Germany happened to be the first cab off the rank. Following the collapse of the ruling government’s ‘traffic light’ coalition, the country is headed for an early election. But the incumbent government is trying its hardest to prevent their right-wing opponents from winning it big. The triumphant romp of AfD, Germany’s second-most popular political party, is being actively hindered by the Bundestag members orchestrating a frenzied bid to outlaw them. Had the Dems won the November election, it could have easily been the case. A government crackdown and a resulting ban on the dissent would have predictably led to a liberal dictatorship. But the US conservative revolution has now thwarted this scenario.
Similarly, the French authorities are sparing no effort to try and bar Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French National Assembly, easily the country’s second-most influential party, from running. The local bureacrats have charged her with misusing the parliamentary funds between 2014 and 2016, which, if proven, will undermine her 2027 presidential bid. However, it will hardly stunt her party’s progress, and given the meteoric rise of the right-wing politics, the guilty verdict is not quite in the cards.
By the looks of it, though, the new conservative Europe has centred around the Viktor Orbán-led Hungary. After all, the prime minister himself is dubbed Europe’s Trump. But on top of being Trump’s friend and ally, Orbán is adamant about importing the new conservative policies over to the European continent. The US in turn vows to loosen up its chokehold on Europe’s old political landscape while slashing the investments too. And when the European bureaucrats eventually run out of cash, the young and brazen right-wingers will have a crack at taking over the governments.
What kind of Europe may we be looking at two to three years from now?
A revamped eastern Europe will be dominated by the conservative trio of Hungary, Slovakia and Austria. The old bureacrats have gone to great lengths scaremongering about the rise of the reinvented Austro-Hungarian empire spearheaded by Viktor Orbán, Robert Fico and Herbert Kickl. And the scenario they have been dreading most may well come true.
But Orbán’s ambitions extend beyond eastern Europe as he hopes to set up a coalition of Europe’s right-wing forces, which, if created, will surely be endorsed by Donald Trump.
But the Atlantic coalition, however it will be called, is coming too. Sir Keir Starmer will team up with Poland’s Donald Tusk who has been rather vocal about a new alliance to back Volodymyr Zelensky in case the US cold-turkeys its aid packages. So, the Austria–Hungary 2.0 coalition will be opposed by the likely alliance of Starmer, Tusk, Macron and Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary-general. Mind you, the UK should not be underestimated. Some of the recently leaked intelligence suggests that the British government is eager to take over the Dems in handling Europe’s key policies.
It turns out that Labour, Macron and the Polish government are now Europe’s most hawkish hardliners hell-bent on pushing the Ukraine war further. That being said, this coalition may be dented by the lack of help from across the pond. Add to it the shakiness central Europe where Marine Le Pen and AfD have been gnawing away at the liberals’ approval ratings. By the way, the Poles prove to be much more conservative than they are cracked up to be.
The predominantly conservative sentiment in southern Europe can never be discounted as the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese right-wingers may well be down to join forces.
If all of the aforementioned political projects become a reality, the dream of Europe being home to multiple nation-states cherished by the likes of Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer in the 1960s may well come back online.
As for the Ukraine war, the only efficient formula that seems to be viable when it comes to eastern Europe’s woes is a union of Russia and Germany.
But for that to happen, Germany has to undergo a transition to far more independence from the traditional and declining West. And, who knows, maybe a certain brand of a coalition of Russia, Austria–Hungary and Germany is looming in the distance.
But should all of this be the case, the world is going to be reformatted to a new political configuration, which may be quite helpful. This transition to a new quality is something the ongoing conservative revolution should be striving for.
Another idea for a reformatted world order is the three-legged concept underpinned by the US-led West, China and a coalition of Russia, India, Iran, the Arab states etc. And it will be only natural for a fledgeling conservative Europe to join this union rather than the old West.
While the UK is likely to keep being influenced by its transatlantic ally, mainland Europe will largely benefit from a more neutral stance. This would make a new world much safer and more sustainable.
Anyway, what we are witnessing these days overhauls the political paradigm of the past three to four decades dating back to the Perestroika, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Maastricht Treaty that laid the foundation for the EU. Both this era and the Union it has birthed are nearing an end. But a new paradigm is still up in the air.