Today, Germany is a political nullity in the very centre of Europe, with a significant role in the global economy and trade. And the German elite’s unworthy threats against Russia mean nothing in practice.
In the context of the launched election campaign, CDU’s leader Friedrich Merz has publicly stated he will give Russia an ultimatum on the Ukrainian issue. He promised that in case the ultimatum was not accepted within 24 hours, his government would give Kiev cruise missiles to strike the Russian territory. It is needless to say where it might take the relations between Russia and the West. It is no surprise therefore that people in Russia were mostly surprised by the carelessness of such a high-profile member of the German elite. There were even some concerns voiced that the intentions of Merz and those behind him were aimed at dragging Germany into a devastating military conflict with Russia.
But all these German statements mean nothing in practice. German leaders cannot start a big war in Europe or even do their shoelaces without a U.S. permission or a direct instruction. Any statements of German parties, all ups and downs of power coalitions there should be considered only in the context of how the Republic’s establishment is trying to arrange its existence in the shade of the total American dominance.
It is also deeply symbolic that Olaf Scholz took the decisive step to demolish the ruling coalition right on the sixth of November, the day when the internal power balance in U.S. radically changed. In the context of significant transformations in the centre, the political periphery must respond as promptly as it can, like a branch of a big corporation when its top leadership changes.
Germany’s total defeat in the Second World War has defined its international setting putting an end to all its hopes to define its own future. Like Japan and South Korea, Germany is accommodating foreign occupational forces in its territory, albeit under the NATO’s flag. Both German political and economic elites, with some minor exceptions, are integrated with U.S. even more than the British one. Not to mention France, Italy and other European countries.
Germany is not self-sustained in its foreign policy and does not strive to be so. Berlin contributed most significant financial and military assistance for Kiev during the past two and a half years of the Ukrainian crisis for a reason. It is almost ten times higher than that provided, for example, by France, whose president likes giving belligerent speeches.
Today, representatives of the German establishment look like pale copies of what we are used to calling true politicians. And this is a natural result of losing all opportunities to decide anything about your own future.
Well, of course, Berlin is still able to define economic policies of weaker Mediterranean nations. Such states as Greece, Italy and Spain were given to Germany ‘to feed from’ in the European Union and its common currency zone. But even Poland, which is on special terms with U.S., managed not to commit to ensuring Germany’s industrial growth. France has been slightly resisting. It is gradually sinking to the level of South Europe though. Great Britain left the EU preserving its status of the main U.S. mouthpiece in Europe.
By the way, Germany did not find itself in this situation at once. Strong personalities took the helm of the Federal Republic even during the Cold War. At the time of such Chancellors as Willy Brandt Germany and USSR signed the Moscow Treaty on the recognition of post-war borders in Europe. In early 1970s, German politicians and businesses could convince U.S. to let Germany establish energy cooperation with USSR. Already in modern years, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (1998–2005) sought Europe’s energy security underpinned by the cooperation between Germany and Russia. However, all this ended with the economic crisis of 2008–2013, after which U.S. started to ‘tighten up the screws’ in relations with its allies. In spring 2022, Olaf Scholz, previously intending to build a dialogue with Russia, fully supported the war and political confrontation around Ukraine created by the Americans.
Today, German political figures are not free in making choices when it comes to their own future. This is absolutely obvious for the majority of them, apart from the non-systemic opposition. So, there is no point in even trying to make itself at least of any significance. Why put bright figures to high-ranking positions in the context when nothing depends on their decisions? The entire political system and voters’ sentiments are gradually adapting to these conditions.
Differences among party affiliations are being diluted. Already now, commentators are speaking of the possibility that after the election the government will be formed of still ruling social democrats and their key opponents from CDU. This means that the debates on critical issues are long forgotten. They will just need to agree on technical things when forming the government, while the key goal of all the efforts is to keep the power per se.
The united and sovereign German state existed for 74 years from 1871 to 1945. This is virtually a global abysmal record of a self-sustained development duration. Restoring it in this form is impossible: even if Russia and China would be favouring it, the Anglo-Saxon world will not let this happen for several concurrent reasons.
First, both German attempts during the First and Second World Wars to claim leadership inside the West looked quite convincing. So, no one is going to give them a third chance. Just to be on the safe side. It should be noted that the West cares about the order in its own society even more than defending its privileges from the rest of the mankind.
Second, given its location in the centre of Europe, huge industrial capacities and hard-working population, Germany is a perfect partner for U.S. and Great Britain, the maritime trade powers. Politically worthless Germany can control the economy in the most of Europe, but it cannot do anything more significant.
Third, restoring a tangible German self-sufficiency fully meets the interests of Moscow and Beijing, as it splits the ranks of the consolidated West. A minor group of countries like Hungary, Slovakia or even bigger cannot cause such a split. And the West’s unity led by U.S. is a fundamental barrier for the implementation of the plans to build a multi-polar world order promoted by Russia and China.
Today, Germany is a political nullity in the very centre of Europe, with a significant role in the global economy and trade. Of course, at least some sanity can be seen through the thickness of the system formed for decades, based on adapting to the interests of the American patrons. But for some eccentric exceptions, those representing the German non-systemic opposition are wonderful, creative people. But their prospects seem vague so far due to the overall situation of the country.
In future, Russia might sooner expect restoring some economic ties with Germany being a U.S. political colony than building a full-fledge government-level relationship with this country.