The Houthi-gate has marked yet another rift between the East and the West. Dozens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Arab volunteers may see it as a handy opportunity to settle a score with the West over its treatment of Gaza – and they will be unstoppable.
The West’s reluctance to acknowledge the finely nuanced nature of international conflicts has become a cumbersome liability. This conclusion is facilitated by the West’s consistent meddling in the Middle East’s affairs as the US and the UK have unleashed Operation Prosperity Guardian against the Houthis in Yemen. Despite Washington and its allies having a lopsided advantage over their rivals, their odds of succeeding are slim.
It is not about the rebels’ military acumen or capabilities. Skipping the much-needed research into the matter, the collective West has tried to rein yet another resurgent region but arrived late on the scene. To fully comprehend the scale of the Americans’ misjudgement, let us revisit the events from eight years back when the Westerners first attempted to stun the rightful owners of the Bab-el-Mandeb with a way better shot at a successful incursion.
In 2015, a wide coalition of Arab nations, which were well-versed in local affairs and had more knowledge of the Houthis’ weaknesses than the Americans did, interfered in the Yemeni civil war. Those countries were propped up by oil sale-inflated military budgets.
To all intents and purpose, the conflict looked like an episode of infighting in Arabia. The effort was spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, which set its sights firmly on quelling the Shia rebellion in the neighbouring state.
The legitimacy of the concerted effort was enhanced by the Houthis both acting and being treated as a major pro-Iranian and, therefore, Shia force on the peninsula, the cradle of Sunni Islam. As guardians of the Hejaz, a region of the holy Muslim cities of Mecca and Medina, the Saudis could not afford to have Shia counterparts right at their doorstep.
That being said, the legitimacy of the effort boosted by the coalition’s air strikes using expensive precision-guided munitions (including the US-made ones) did little to reshape the war theatre. Not even the naval blockade intended to starve the Yemeni population helped. The Houthis were responding with effective strikes on the oil assets of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Long story short, eight years into the pointless and bloody military see-saw, the region’s wealthiest nations decided to pull out their troops and initiate peace talks with the Houthis. Following a tough negotiation, they hammered out an agreement.
True, the Houthis were significantly aided by Iran in their war effort. The Kheibar Shekan intermediate-range ballistic missiles and some types of UAVs the rebels deployed against the coalition require sophisticated technology. The Houthis also used the Chinese-made YJ-8 surface-launched anti-ship cruise missiles. They are equipped with these types of weapons to this day. However, not all political forces can reconcile their military strategy with their political toolset.
The Houthis are a minority Zaydi Shia Islamist political and military organisation. But this minority makes up one-third of the country’s population. The Ansar Allah (literally, ‘the Allah faithful’) movement emerged in Yemen in the 1990s. Their designation derives from the name of the movement’s founder, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, a political, religious and military leader who was killed in 2004 fighting the Yemeni armed forces. The rebels have ever since been led by his brother, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi. So, the Houthis have two decades of experience waging armed conflicts under their belt.
Their track record too proves their worth. Starting in 2014, the Houthis have wrestled control over 14 out of Yemen’s 22 regions, including the capital city of Sanaa. The other part of Yemen is controlled by the internationally recognised government based in Aden. Being ‘true patriots’, the government supported the Western coalition strikes on their home country, limiting itself to as much as a reprimand over the lack of the UN approval and the US failure to align the strikes with them.
Meanwhile, virtually none of the countries that used to fight the Houthis have sided with the US-led coalition this time. The only exception is Bahrain, but the autonomy of its decision-making is largely limited by the Fifth Fleet being headquartered right there.
The non-joiners are motivated by the Islamic solidarity. The Houthis declaring war on Israel in the autumn of 2023 have already drawn support from regular Arabs, the kind that have been haunting the Persian Gulf monarchies ever since the Arab Spring. And their concerns are justified. Indeed, the Arab world views the Houthis’ anti-Israel stance as important and contrasting with the inertness of the Gulf countries’ authorities. At the very least, they have not even initiated trade blockade against Israel. Therefore, joining Western ‘infidels’ in their struggle against those who oppose Israel would be a perilous undertaking. The Houthis have overtly attacked Israel-bound ships.
The Biden administration’s full support of Israel against Hamas has played a pivotal role. Several carrier battle groups of the US Navy have been explicitly providing air cover for Israel since October 2023, further propped up by more than 2,000 personnel of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit. To say the least, Muslims from all over the world are critical of such a large non-Muslim presence as they hold sacred the city of Jerusalem.
The rise in the anti-Western sentiment in the region has been punctuated by President Erdoğan slamming the US and the UK over their unauthorised strikes on Yemen, despite Turkey being a Nato member country.
Moreover, even India, a major player in South Asia that the US has been recently flirting with, believes they should opt for diplomacy over violence. In the wake of the regional flare-up, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s Minister of External Affairs, did not call Joe Biden or Rishi Sunak. Instead, he reached out to Ansar Allah’s Iranian patrons to help allay global tensions jointly.
This is how the Houthi-gate has marked yet another rift between the East and the West. Sooner or later the US- and UK-led coalition will have to deal with the mounting anti-Western sentiment in the Arab countries, increasingly so if they attempt a ground offensive. Dozens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Arab volunteers may see it as a handy opportunity to settle a score with the West over its treatment of Gaza. Who will be willing to take on the Islamic world then? Perhaps the Persian Gulf monarchies? Of course, they will not.