There is nothing quite beneficial for Beijing in the hard war and political confrontation between Russia and the West. Well, of course, this is better than an alliance against China, towards which there were attempts to push Moscow, but, at the end of the day, for PRC there is much less good in this confrontation than risks.
The relations in the USA – Russia – China triangle remain central for today’s entire international political affairs.
USA, as a country claiming most of economic and political benefits after the Cold War, is trying to beat its rivals in Russia and China. But at the same time it understands it will have to resume relations with them in future. In their turn, Russia and China are also considering long-term perspectives instead of living in the now. After all, the conflict in progress is aimed at changing the international order, not at its complete destruction. Which, by the way, is hardly possible with the huge nuclear arsenals possessed by the three powers.
At the same time, America is a ‘loner’ country surrounded by a coalition of much weaker satellites always trying to shrug off their commitments and doing nothing else. That is why the Americans take risks and play harder.
Moscow and Beijing are not loners. They rely on each other, have equal relations and hold common strategic positions. They are independent powers and none of them commands the other: they must respect each other’s interests and limits when it comes to working with the US. This is why it is more complicated for us and the Chinese – teamwork usually needs more finesse, half-tones and intuitive mutual understanding.
Russia and China have identical views on how a fair world should look like. Yet, each of them has their own way, based on their capabilities, limits and strategic circumstances. Here, no complete acceptance of the partner’s position is required.
Lately official spokespersons of the American government have made a few quite strong statements – that Russia is, allegedly, making progress in the frontline thanks to China’s support. Top Western media spoke in the same vein playing the role of war propaganda and misinformation vehicles in recent years. The US Treasury Secretary paid a visit to Beijing, with its official part filled with threats with the consequences looming over the Chinese for their cooperation with Russia. We do not know what the closed-door talks were about. But it does not matter that much: the Americans are acting out in public and provoking China to retaliate and surrender.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov came to Beijing just a few days later. On that occasion, the vibes were, of course, very different. A visit of Russia’s head of state is under preparation. The parties confirmed their plans and that they do not intend to cancel them.
In its official statements and comments, China fought back all American attacks unequivocally. Our partners in Beijing have not given a single reason to say that Russia and China have anything in their relations the US can seriously influence. At the same time, it is necessary to understand that China and Russia are close partners, but they do not make themselves dependent on each other’s interests. And Beijing’s position cannot be as of Russia’s only ally, Belarus, or a few states, which can survive only if Russia successfully counteracts the West (North Korea, Syria and Venezuela). The primary task of the Chinese leadership is the survival and prospering of their own nation, like, for that matter, of any sovereign state, and in today’s world there are much fewer such states than there are UN member nations.
Our relations with China are complex and multi-faceted, which is defined by the need to achieve common goals while sticking to own national interests. For such powers, national interests cannot be defined outwardly. Well, Germany and France readily compromise their economies refusing to cooperate with Russia for the sake of the US strategy. Or Finland, which is going to cut social benefits to spend more on defence in line with NATO’s requirements. Russia and China have their own right to define their actions in global politics and economy. That is why their relations have to be rated based on much more complex criteria, the level of strategic mutual understanding being the top of them. So far, we are doing well here.
China has been consistent in its respect for Russia’s decision to start the special military operation. It would be naïve to think the hard war and political confrontation between Russia and the West is of a particular benefit for Beijing. Well, of course, this is better than an alliance against China, towards which there were attempts to push Moscow, but, at the end of the day, for PRC there is much less good in this confrontation than risks.
First, a military conflict in Europe can potentially escalate to destroy the whole planet, with any China’s economic progress being not important anymore. Second, the unsuccessful struggle with Russia makes the US more irritated and blatant in decision-making. This is aimed at everyone, but the toughest statements are focusing on China.
The discussion that China finally reaped colossal benefits from easier access to the Russian market and growing volumes of energy imports can prove to be ungrounded. The losses of Chinese companies caused by the American pressure and potential global threats are more important for China. This is why China has always preferred a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and the West.
In its turn, Russia takes China’s complex situation into account also considering that it does not have any motives to look for troubles: destroy its companies and banks bombarded by US sanctions or even push the Americans to military provocations. By the way, the latter are ready for an escalation, as they have little dependency on the global market. At the same time, it is unlikely that Russia is itself looking towards US and China breaching the line leading to a military conflict. At least because in such a case China’s capabilities to support Russia in Europe will be significantly curbed. And, overall, we do not know how the Chinese army will perform if it will have to wage war against a technically advanced and resolved enemy. Moreover, no one knows this including China’s own leadership. Russia seems to show understanding when Chinese businesses and banks restrict cooperation with us fearing American punitive actions.
Today, it seems, while US military positions in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine are getting weaker, the diplomacy has been increasingly at play. For China, it brings a unique opportunity to act as a balancer for the two superpowers, whose strife defined the world politics throughout the second half of the last century. Acting exactly in this capacity, Beijing is hoping to acquire the status of a great global power once and for all. However, there are no grounds to believe it will do so at Russia’s expense. First of all, because it is impossible due to the nature of our relations, which, besides common political goals, economic benefits and each other’s strengths and weaknesses, are based on genuine equality.