America has become somewhat captured by the Israeli politics. It has to bear enormous losses caused by the actions of its ally it cannot abandon or fully control.
In the recent years, the American diplomacy has faced plenty of challenges. These include Russia with the Ukrainian venture and China’s increasingly active behaviour, and Iran shaking off the last restrictions of the nuclear deal. Yet, the military conflict in Gaza has become the most serious challenge.
It is not because the conflict can lead to a world war (a war between America and Iran is possible, at most). And it is not because the US ally is in a difficult situation – Israel has every chance to defeat Hamas in the battlefield. But because this conflict leaves the American diplomacy without the freedom of maneuver bringing the end of Pax Americana dramatically closer.
Zero options
It is no secret that the United States has taken a fully and absolutely pro-Israeli position. It supplies arms to Tel-Aviv. It protects it in the UN Security Council, e.g. by blocking the resolution on the immediate cease-fire, by the way, being the only state voting against, with even the faithful Brits abstaining on the vote. “But when it comes to a ceasefire in this moment, with Hamas still alive, still intact – and again, with the stated intent of repeating October 7th again and again and again – that would simply perpetuate the problem”, said US State Secretary Antony Blinken explaining the decision.
And this protection might seem quite understandable. Firstly, the US population is pro-Israeli in general (especially those voting for the Republicans). Secondly, the Jewish community in the US is quite influential (not only because it controls entire economic sectors but also because it funds the Democrats). Thirdly, Israel is the only proper US ally in the Middle East. And it won’t leave for someone else (like, say, Saudi Arabia looking towards China) and is not capable of having an autonomous foreign policy and of challenging the American leadership in the region (which Türkiye is already doing), while sharing Iran as the same existential foe with the Americans.
The problem is that the entirely pro-Israeli position cancels the years of efforts the American diplomacy put to get on with the Arabic society. It makes pointless the numerous financial and human sacrifices, for example, the turning in of Hosni Mubarak to the Islamists, which were made to help America look more attractive to ordinary Arabs. It also ruins every effort Washington is taking right now to bring not just the Arabic, but the Muslim world to its side, for example when it comes to such global matters as the containment of China and Russia.
No way to persuade
By supporting Tel-Aviv fully and unequivocally, Washington has, in fact, become an accomplice of what Israel is doing in Gaza. Well, Antony Blinken is saying the arms are being given to the Israeli in compliance with the international humanitarian law, but he’d better not say that. Because everyone sees how the Israeli army respects the humanitarian law, perpetrating carpet bombing of the Gaza Strip and shooting Palestinian men in the streets.
Well, yes, just technically, the Americans could try and hold explanatory talks with Israel. To explain to them they cannot kill the Palestinians under “kill them, Allah knows those that are his own” principle striving to eliminate Hamas. That they cannot carpet-bomb civilian quarters. That they cannot commit atrocities in the mobile Internet and hi-tech age when each destroyed house enables Palestinian agitators to make dozens of videos about the sufferings of civilians.
However, everyone understands Israel will not act differently. Because it can’t and doesn’t want to.
Military fighting in urban communities would require huge infantry losses, which Israel is not ready to accept. That is why, instead of doing this, it systematically bombs the areas where, as it believes, Hamas has its infrastructure and fighters. By the way, the area of the whole Strip is just 360 square kilometers, which is (or, rather, used to be) home to 2.2 m people. This is over six thousand persons per square kilometer, or more than 13 thousand people taking the city of Gaza itself before the war). This is why the Israeli bombings, especially carpet bombings, cause so many civilian casualties and, by definition, cannot be held in compliance with the international humanitarian law.
Just technically, the Israeli leadership could figure something out to take care of the civilians, but it does not want to. Firstly, because the mutual hatred between the Jews and the Palestinian Arabs is so high that snapshots of how the Israeli troops randomly shoot Arabs in Gaza are regularly published online. Secondly, the Israeli leadership seems like it wants to teach the Arabs a lesson because of what happened on October 7, showing that such attacks against Israel will be punished most brutally, with the use of the collective responsibility principle.
They’d better not talk at all
This is the diplomatic stalemate for Washington. America has become somewhat captured by the Israeli politics. It has to bear enormous losses caused by the actions of its ally it cannot abandon or fully control.
It might seem the American administration could adapt to the current situation. It could curb its diplomatic bragging and be a bit quieter (while still helping Tel-Aviv and mapping the risks of attacking Israel for the Iranians and the consequences of any sanctions for the Saudis). But it turned out the American diplomats cannot turn their cynical bragging off even in this context.
As a result, Washington votes against putting the Gaza issue on the agenda the UN Security Council, and it explains it… with the aspiration to protect Palestinian civilians. “We remain focused on the difficult and sensitive diplomacy geared to getting more hostages released, more aid flowing into Gaza and better protection of civilians”, says Robert Wood, the US deputy envoy to the UN.
Yet, the recent statement by the White House representative John Kirby was the most cynical one. “Name me one other nation, any nation, that’s doing as much as the United States to alleviate the pain and suffering of the people of Gaza? You can’t. You just can’t. The United States, through President Biden, is leading the effort to get trucks, food, water, medicine and fuel in to the people of Gaza”, the official blurted out to the press. Indeed, a representative of the nation, which helps “alleviate the pain and suffering” of the people Gaza by giving the Israeli the arms to kill these people.
Unsurprisingly, such a position at the height of cynicism and double standard policies sparks the utmost discontent of the Muslim world. This, in the context of the growing economic and political sovereignty of Arabic states, deals a serious blow to the remaining American leadership globally. This turns Washington from a former important security guarantor and a stabilizing force into a toxic player and a bull in a China shop. Or a donkey, considering the ones at the helm in Washington now.
When “elephants” (i.e. the Republicans) are back in the China shop, the situation will change. America will further help Israel, yet on a fair basis and without the bragging, which ruins its image (like it was during Donald Trump’s presidency). However, there is a year before this return. Meanwhile, the current US Administration will deal the final blow to Pax Americana through its actions in the Arab-Israeli venture.