Europeans’ current behaviour is best described by an episode from an old American fairy tale about Brother Rabbit. ‘Do what you want but please don’t throw me into the Briar Patch’. The briar patch is the best hiding for the rabbit but the simple-minded Fox could not just guess it.
The fuss caused by the scandal in the relations between U.S. and their European satellites at the conference in Munich will go on for a while. We will witness numerous statements by European politicians of various levels. Newspapers, especially British ones, will publish flows of commentators’ opinions calling for Europe to pull itself together and firmly state its rights in the relations with the patrons in Washington. However, it is clear already now that all these emotions will bring nothing new to the relations between U.S. and Europe.
Moreover, hard statements of representatives of the new American government related to Europeans also mean nothing about the main issue, which is the position of U.S. in the global politics and the possibilities that it stops being a parasitic state. Also, Europe will remain as it was in the core of global politics being exactly the place locating the confrontation between U.S. and Russia, the only power having openly challenged Washington. This is indicated by preserving U.S. nuclear arsenals on the bases in Europe and the presence of American troops in several European states. Let alone NATO bloc, which no one in Washington thinking to dissolve it.
Europeans’ current behaviour is best described by an episode from an old American fairy tale about Brother Rabbit. After his eternal chaser Br’er Fox caught him, the Rabbit implored ‘to do what he wanted but not to throw him in the Briar Patch’. Well, even the smallest readers were aware that the briar patch was the best hiding for the rabbit but the simple-minded Fox could not just guess it.
It is still like today when politicians and businessmen from Berlin, Paris, Rome and even smaller countries are pretending to be terrified that U.S. might leave them face to face with Russia. These wailings are a big performance involving top Europeans playing their roles expecting that their American patrons will not guess their true intentions.
These are the European countries, which still mean at least something in the world economy and have comparatively big demographic resources: Germany, France and Italy. Politicians in these states perfectly know that people do not want to go to war with Russia at all. They do not want to be at war with anybody. Unlike in 1914 and 1939, when millions of ordinary Europeans were desperate to attack each other in the context of an economic turmoil, what Europe is going through right now seems to be a kid’s party. Even Poland is aware its voters have such an opinion and keeps quite restrained, which is quite unusual for this country. But they will anyway send a few thousand reckless adventurers to die in Ukraine. Well, it is not good for anything else.
Maybe, small European countries like former Soviet Baltic states, the Czech Republic and a couple of Scandinavian fanatics can be an exception. However, if Germany and France get a real chance to get on terms with Russia on their own, the opinion of these dwarves would not matter to anyone at all. Like it did not matter for several German chancellors who kept promoting the Nord Stream project even when the relations between Russia and EU were completely spoilt.
The Baltic states and Kiev are fully aware of this. They fear staying face to face with the German and French alliance even more than they fear Russia.
No one from serious EU states are going to struggle to be in the centre of global affairs by fuelling the conflict in the East. And they do not even think of this, as they abandoned any dreams of playing the global role long ago.
But everyone in Europe understands that its position on the edge of the conflict is supported by the American military presence, economic expansion and intelligence activities in quite a few Western European countries. Germany and Italy are those leading the way here. Unfortunately, until this remains in Europe, it will be in the centre anyway: even if this is against true intentions of Europeans. And no one speaks of U.S reducing its control over Europe. Everything we hear from Donald Trump’s representatives is just mockery over those who cannot resist at all.
At the same time, politicians of the largest European countries keep repeating the mantras about the Russian threat and the need to defend the rights of Kiev’s regime. They are partly doing it because they simply are afraid of Americans: different things happened during the 80 years of their presence in Western Europe, which modern European politicians would not want to experience. Americans’ pressure on Europe in the first decades after the Second World War was quite hard. Americans loosened the pressure after that, though. But then they returned to previous practices since mid-2000s. We remember America’s anger when Germany and France opposed the attack against Iraq in spring 2003. And the price French and Germans had to pay for this show. So, today they are acting being fully aware of their strategic doom. As for the Brits, who broke away from the European Union, they are enjoying the position of a disenfranchised prisoner in their relations with Berlin and Paris.
Another reason why Europeans are trying hard to pretend being out of their minds is the habit they have developed for many years of speaking with the senior partner being much stronger than they are, using whatever means and constantly changing its demands.
For 15+ years, it was Washington demanding from Europe what it is now rebuking it for as genuinely. Claims of an American politician when the court cancelled the results of the election in unfortunate Romania were especially impressive. First, it was the U.S. showing the example of how to ignore people’s will around the world for decades. Second, trumpists’ claims by their nature are not at all different from the past experience of Europe and others: U.S. still believes it can interfere in its allies’ internal affairs.
Last but not least, Europe, indeed, has quite a few politicians for whom future is somewhere beyond their national states. Many new generation leaders, after they resign, envision careers on the boards of American corporations or international organizations controlled by U.S.
It is especially relevant for politicians from small countries like Finland and Baltic republics. They are currently trying hard to adapt to the changes in the sentiments of American patrons and are playing the part of the internal opposition to major European countries. Just because they are perfectly aware that the real weakening of U.S. control over Europe will lead to Germany and France making their statehoods forgotten at once. They will find a consensus with Poland by giving it some of the revenues from trading with Russia and will get along with Moscow for good.
In Western Europe, none of the influential figures have any fear of Russia: they have known Russians for over 500 years. But so far, the likelihood that U.S. will allow them to do so is not even theoretical.