Hungary is outraged by the ‘political blackmail’ undertaken by the EU officials. Budapest is being threatened with sweeping economic sanctions over its Ukraine stance. What is it all about and why is Brussels’ blackmail attempt likely to backfire?
For years, Western propaganda claimed that there was no freedom or democracy within the Warsaw Pact and Comecon, the two Soviet integration projects in Eastern Europe. It used an example of the Soviet troops entering Hungary in 1956 to quell the national rebellion against the ‘Soviet dictatorial rule’.
Today, as Hungary is part of the West’s integration projects, the EU and Nato, it turns out that neither involves freedom or democracy. Financial Times reports that the EU leaders have set out to ‘sabotage’ Hungary’s economy.
The plan drafted by the EU officials lays out a strategy to weaken Hungary’s economy, jeopardising its national currency and reducing investor confidence in a bid to cut domestic jobs and curb the country’s economic growth, FT elaborates. Besides, the European leadership is intent on threatening to cut off the EU funding to Hungary indefinitely.
These threats are nothing to be downplayed. The country is indeed dependent on the inflow of foreign funds, and 84% of its exports target the EU, the US and the UK. The West’s crackdown may cause a grave economic crisis in Hungary that, according to Western strategists, will undermine the unruly Viktor Orban’s standing.
The crackdown will likely follow the EU Summit slated for 1 February, should Hungary block the approval of a €50bn aid package to Ukraine for 2024–2027. This is supposed to be paid for by the EU money, and the EU naturally includes Hungary. Essentially, politicians are reconvening for the special summit to tackle the December no-deal caused by Hungary exercising its veto power. Simply put, Budapest is offered a second chance to do ‘the right thing’.
Hungarian people have said they are already doing what they feel is the right thing. The recent polls have 99% of the country’s population supporting Viktor Orban’s Ukraine stance. Moreover, unlike the EU authorities, Hungary’s policy is compliant with the law.
‘The document drafted by Brussels bureaucrats only confirms what the Hungarian Government has been saying for a long time: access to EU funds is used for political blackmailing by Brussels,’ says an indignant Janos Boka, Hungary’s Minister for EU Affairs. According to the Budapest government, the Ukraine aid package and the funds allocated for Hungary are two separate questions. ‘Hungary cannot see how the two are linked and opposes any attempts to link them coming from the other forces,’ Boka says.
That being said, the Hungarian government has already proposed a compromise. Budapest may approve the package if it suggests that every tranche can be reconsidered annually and vetoed by Hungary. The EU has predictably turned down the deal offer as they do not want Hungary to engage in annual ‘blackmail’. So, the ultimatum is on the table: either Hungary agrees to the Ukraine package or it will have to relive the 1956 disaster in financial terms.
But the question is: Will the EU be able to keep the ominous promise? After all, it is not just about Hungary. European officials are hard at work assuring everyone and their grandma that they abide by the principles of democracy and freedom and their decision-making is strictly consensual. Instead, here we are dealing with unmitigated pressure of the worst kind conceivable. ‘Brussels is using blackmail against Hungary like there’s no tomorrow,’ Balazs Orban, the PM’s political director, says. Why would the EU want to undermine its own overarching propaganda?
On the one hand, it seeks to discipline the member states. ‘A poor country should not be punching above its weight and challenging the major players’ decisions.
It is compounded by the fact that Orban has a history of feuding with the Dutch PM Mark Rutte, who is currently Europe’s most influential political figure. The former is a father of five who goes to church every Sunday. The latter tells everyone about strutting around his residence naked. The Dutch PM is eager to teach his Hungarian counterpart a lesson. According to Rutte, since the Netherlands provides funds for Hungary, it is entitled to force its own rules when it comes to democracy, LGBT, etc.,’ Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities, has told.
According to him, the EU has always pressured the countries that begged to differ. Even Germany had to fold amid the Greek debt crisis. In the EU, there can be no army of one or even two, for that matter, since Slovakia is siding with Hungary. The Poles who used to be Europe’s worst troublemakers finally elected the ‘right’ PM in Donald Tusk and seem to have mellowed. ‘Tusk has canceled and overturned literally everything the EU was critical about,’ says Vadim Trukhachev.
To make matters worse, the EU is being supported by the US, which has already accused Hungary of conducting ‘fantasy foreign policy’ that helps Russia’s cause. Washington is irate over Viktor Orban’s attempts to thwart the American plan to burden Europe with the Ukraine aid, let alone his resistance to the Western liberal values.
The Biden administration even went so far as to hand-pick the new ambassador to Hungary. ‘His Excellency David Pressman is a non-traditional individual in all respects. His appointment sought to annoy the Hungarian government and Orban, a devout Calvinist, in particular,’ Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior research fellow at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations, explains in an interview.
Given the above circumstances, some experts believe Orban will eventually have to cave – or even fold altogether. ‘He knows the rules all too well. That is why he is not going to go against the grain,’ says Vadim Trukhachev.
Others, however, suggest that it is the EU that will have to give in, should Orban keep up his fight. After all, the adverse effects of pressuring the Hungarian PM into signing the deal may outweigh the perks of making him fall into line against the backdrop of the current international landscape.
First, Europe is aware of the current US domestic developments. ‘Siding with the bungling Biden administration, which is about to lose, will be an odd call, given that Trump is largely favoured to win the election,’ Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky points out. ‘The European authorities are now already trying to balance out the EU–US relations that are carrying a heavy price.’
Second, both the European Commission and the very idea of a European identity are going through a rough patch. Some countries (above all, Eastern Europe) are concerned about the further expansion of the EU integration and are at least sympathetic toward the opposing forces. They clearly realise they can join the ranks of those labelled ‘the opposing forces’ at any moment.
Brussels has no other option but to take this sentiment into account. ‘Europeans tend to stay away from ‘punishing’ the nations just because this will erode the loyalty of the member states long term,’ Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky believes.
So, it boils down to whether the EU chooses to carry on with the tactically beneficial pressure or start a strategically favourable negotiation. After all, in 1956, the outcome of the Hungarian rebellion was also viewed as the Soviet win, whereas in the longer term, those events prompted the collapse of the Soviet bloc.