The German media has published the alleged Bundeswehr’s plan preparing Germany for a war between Russian and NATO, referred to by the media as ‘imminent’. The German Defence Ministry has not denied these leaks. What is this plan all about and what does the timing of the leak imply?
Allegedly, Germany is preparing for a war between NATO and Russia. This was reported by the German tabloid Bild citing a classified Bundeswehr document. The German Defence Ministry purportedly expects a full-fledged conflict to erupt in the summer of 2025, with an initial escalatory step taken in February 2024 as the Russian troops will launch a massive offensive in Ukraine and crush the Ukrainian army.
According to the newspaper, in July, Moscow is going to unleash a series of cyberattacks on the Baltic states and provoke protests at the hands of the local Russian minority groups. The unrest will then be used to authorise the massive Zapad 2024 exercise in Russia and Belarus that will see the deployment of 50,000 troops.
On the Bundeswehr scenario, in October, Russia will post its troops and medium-range missiles to Kalinigrad. December 2024 will see an artificially induced ‘border conflict’ and ‘riots with numerous deaths’ in the Suwalki Gap area. The escalation will result in the NATO’s commander-in-chief ordering on Day X the deployment of 300,000 troops, including 30,000 German personnel, to the eastern flank.
The outbreak of this war is referred to as ‘imminent’. Notably, the German military authorities did not deny the leaked information. Instead, the MoD stressed that examining various scenarios, including the least likely ones, is part of their job description, Bild reports.
‘A powerful last year’s horoscope for Pisces in Cancer. I cannot rule out that it was the German Foreign Ministry under [Annalena] Baerbock that provided the analytics to the Bundeswehr,’ Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, posted to her Telegram page, mocking the article.
Importantly, the timing of the piece coincided with the large-scale social unrest unfolding in Germany. Earlier the German Train Drivers’ Union (GDL) staged a strike to demand a €555 raise to their monthly wages and a 35-hour week for shift workers.
German farmers went on strike too. In early January, they shut down highway traffic on the A4, A13, A14 and A17 roads in Saxony and Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania, thus cutting off Cottbus and Brandenburg an der Havel. Bayern’s law enforcement reported about nearly 5,500 local tractors headed toward Munich.
Protesters also descended on the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, holding up signs reading, ‘He who sows the wind will reap the storm’, ‘Peace to the arable fields, war to the military budget’ and ‘Stop sanctions and the destruction of the middle class’. The strike led to the shutdown of a Volkswagen facility in Emden, Lower Saxony, where the disgruntled protesters had blocked all the entrances.
The social unrest has no signs of abating. Monday saw the nation’s largest farmer protest. According to Focus, the crowd paralysed central Berlin.
The cited article may have something to do with the Germans protesting over the economic downturn. Experts suggest that German authorities are using the ephemeral Russia scare to distract the public from the flawed policies conducted by the Scholz administration.
‘Western media outlets often run publications detailing a possible war against Russia. However, the recent Bild piece really stands out as this act of rumour-mongering may well be encouraged by the German government in a bid to scare the public away from domestic problems,’ says political scientist Vladimir Kornilov.
‘Germany is going through an economic downturn and the country is swept by nationwide strikes. The image of a “scary and dangerous enemy” is capable of uniting the German public as the external threat helps to allay domestic controversy.
‘Importantly, the piece was written by [Julian] Röpcke who is famous for his anti-Russian views. Even though his article details the allegedly upcoming war with Russia, it ends with a mention of a military call-up in Germany. Apparently, the author did not want to overdo the scare-mongering part,’ the expert believes.
‘But you cannot just dismiss his writing as pure fantasies and fiction. Berlin along with other Nato and EU countries is likely to have real confrontation plans with regards to Russia. Therefore, this piece should be scrutinised to pre-empt the threats the plans may pose to Russia,’ Kornilov stresses.
‘Diplomacy-wise, Russia should try and address the German public, telling them that their government is looking to embroil them in a pointless and ferocious conflict that will only serve to exacerbate the current domestic woes,’ the political scientist advises.
Artem Sokolov, a research fellow at the Centre for European Studies with the Institute of International Studies, also points to the links between the protests and the recent Bild piece. He indicates: ‘In all likelihood, the classified document in question comes from the German Federal ministry of Defence, except it does not outline the real battlefield scenarios but rather training scenarios and simulations. Moreover the German military has already said that preparing for all types of scenarios, including the least likely ones, are part of their job description.’
‘Bild initially thought the article would be a bombshell eliciting an emotional response both in Germany and in Russia. This publication has a penchant for clickbait titles and a reputation as the least-read bestseller. Albeit widely criticised, the newspaper is still a popular read and boasts a vast network of reporters,’ the expert says.
‘The size of this article is just enough to preclude a potential negative response from the readership. Such leaks may continue in the future. I don’t think Russia needs to mull any response to such news stories circulated by the German media,’ Artem Sokolov assures.
‘That being said, quite possibly, the publication was intended to raise public awareness over the current state of the German armed forces. 2022 saw the decision to reform the Bundeswehr, but this initiative has a long way to go. The combat-readiness of the German troops is quite poor. And whenever ordinary Germans run into such articles, they wonder if their army is up to the job,’ the researcher comments.
The German public has been rather lukewarm about the article too. According to German political scientist Alexander Rahr, it should be considered within a broader context of international politics. ‘The US is reluctant to continue its arms supplies to Ukraine. What they want to do is force the Europeans to engage,’ he says. ‘The leadership of the EU has no clue as to how they are supposed to act without the US backing. That is what prompted the British and French ministers’ visits to Kiev where they assure Zelenskyy they will keep supporting the Ukrainian army. On this scenario, Germany is expected to be the major donor behind the Ukraine financial aid. However, most Germans are tired of this conflict. Hence the intimidation campaign regarding Russia’s potential attack on NATO.’
‘Quite recently German politicians and pundits alike claimed that Moscow had no resources to keep the war effort going. I hope it does not mean that Germany announces the deployment of troops to the exhausted Ukraine to be boots on the ground,’ the expert notes. ‘But if the document in question is true, it should be regarded as one of many action plans developed by the German Defence Ministry. For example, the Scholz administration still has not supplied Ukraine with Taurus missiles. Make no mistake about it: this is not about peace – it involves their concerns over potential escalation.’
‘I don’t think that Germany can use a Bild piece to distract the public from their domestic issues. The Germans are not that dumb, and you cannot just scare them with a possible war against Russia. No one believes in this contingency. The likeliest explanation is the chaotic state of the EU leadership,’ the political scientist opines.
‘Some EU politicians believe that Ukraine cannot lose as it will result in a weaker NATO, whereas others, as is indicated by the Davos rallies, are adamant about the peace talks between the belligerents. And this latter stance is something some officials hate to accept,’ Rahr explains.
Waldemar Herdt, a former member of the Bundestag, is of a different opinion, though. ‘The German government seeks to distract the public from domestic policy issues. As the national economy slumps, the country is swept by some serious worker strikes. The authorities want to use the Bild article to tell the Germans, “While you are only preoccupied with money, we are hard at work trying to beef up your security,”’ says Herdt.
‘Besides, the Scholz administration wants to justify the huge costs of the Ukraine aid. The sheer amount of this support has been raising concerns among regular Germans. However, the government is trying to say that this amount should be further ramped up to avoid NATO’s potential conflict with Russia,’ the political scientist believes.
‘Both ideas are equally preposterous. What we are dealing with here is an attempt to mess with people’s judgement. In a bid to justify the bungling domestic policies, the Scholz administration is ready to intimidate its own people with ephemeral threats. But they will be unable to quell people’s preoccupation through their manipulative ruses,’ Herdt summarises.