The results of the elections in Thuringia and Saxony, the wealthiest lands of Eastern Germany, became a catastrophe for the ruling parties, but not for the whole Germany’s political system. Now it will have to put up with a new force called the Sahra Wageknecht Alliance labelled pro-Russian, yet, ‘Hitler’s come-back’ is somehow exaggerated by the propaganda.
The results of the elections in Saxony and especially in Thuringia, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) caused ‘this is the first victory of the far right since Hitler’s time’ hysteria in Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, also being the socialists’ (SPD) leader, called this ‘a bitter’ outcome.
It is indeed bitter for the federal government (the coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the liberals (FDP)), being a complete defeat, but an expected one for the government, which has led the country to its current troubled state and advises Germans just ‘to stand it’, because ‘getting back to good old life’ is impossible (as Scholz put it). But Germany’s political system did ‘a subtle move’ in a way when it does not have to surrender to the opposition and to make any fundamental changes.
It does not matter if the AfD took the first or the second place like in Saxony. The important thing is that all other parties exclude building a ruling coalition with the AfD and the votes it gained will not be enough to block the work of Landtags (regional parliaments) anyway.
Boycotting the AfD at all governance levels in Germany is sometimes called ‘a fire wall’, like a dead wall used to save other houses from spreading fire. This approach works so far. As in France and the Netherlands, eurosceptics win ‘on points’, but do not win as a matter of fact and are not allowed to govern anything.
The only novelty of the past elections is that, apparently, neither of the two lands will be able to make up governments without the new party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which took the third place both in Thuringia and Saxony with 12–16 per cent votes thanks to the popularity of its federal leader (Sahra Wagenknecht herself). Her position on the migration issue and foreign policy is very much different from the government’s and CDU conservatives’ one (the party Angela Merkel used to lead): she is against the conflict with Russia and helping Kiev. But these matters are the responsibility of Berlin, not Landtags, that is, not being significant at the regional level.
Besides, ‘the fire wall’ does not formally affect Wagenknecht’s party making it ‘a golden share’ holder. But it will be hard to use it in full, as Sahra has a narrow choice: to be uncompromising and hard-line and become known as an intractable force and an ad-hoc AfD ally or become part of the centrist governing ‘hodgepodge’ losing most of its voters who voted against this hodgepodge and remain on the same track.
However, ‘the fire wall’ did affect the Left. This was Angela Merkel’s political will: not to form blocs either with the far right (AfD) or the far left, where she included the Left, the party, which originated from the German Democratic Republic native for Merkel. But the current German political elite cannot afford this ‘purity’: they will have to remove the Left from the list of those undesirable.
In this, Saxony, where the election outcomes seem to be acceptable for the system, is not at all different from Thuringia becoming the place of ‘an election disaster’ letting AfD to run far ahead with a solid margin. In both places a union of a snake and a hedgehog will shape the new power: a representative of the left conservative CDU will take the main post, but then will have to make a government on the left basis.
In Saxony, this will be the current prime minister Michael Kretschmer. He stands out from many party colleagues with a moderate position on a conflict with Russia (which has repeatedly caused diplomatic outcries in Kiev) and is a true, not a would-be, conservative. Today he is one of the most popular CDU politicians across the country, and this saved the ruling system from a defeat.
But Thuringia will see a shift of power. Bodo Ramelow has been at the helm of the region for a decade already, being the only Left representative at this level. He seems to have scared voters from himself in the favour of Wagenknecht who has quit the Left only this year, by calling for hosting even more migrants in Thuringia to increase labour force and to get under the skin of ‘the brown from AfD’.
Eventually, the AfD took the lead in Thuringia, even with Björn Höcke, quite a radical politician, heading the local chapter. Earlier, he created a right anti-migrant wing in the party comprising eurosceptics having different degrees of involvement, which the government banned for extremism.
By the way, Höcke, of whom the press tried to make ‘a new Hitler’ before the election, is not extremist about Russia. He even arrived at his polling station in a Niva – there are still many of these Russian cars across the former GDR.
Attaching ‘the far right’ tag to AfD members is, to a large extent, propaganda and unfair political rivalry, but one should understand that this smoke does not come without fire. According to its policy-making documents, they are largely a moderate power, however, it is hard to expect from a right and patriot party politicians the same we and many others would expect from any Germans, which is a complete rejection of the Hitler period and the shame coming with it.
There are not many revisionists having ‘everything is not so straight’ position in AfD (generally, there are not many of them among Germans), but there are enough of them for AfD to have ‘a fire wall’ not just inside Germany, but also among other nationalist EU parties.
For instance, the AfD, to make a point, was not invited to the new eurosceptic faction in the European Parliament established by Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally became its backbone. Le Pen is often condemned to be ‘far right’ and ‘Fascist’, but she is primarily a French patriot and Gaullist strongly rejecting the collaborationist Vichy regime. When it comes to Hungary, which was Germany’s ally during the Second World War, Orbán understandably restricts his rhetoric about Hungary’s national greatness to Marshal Horthy avoiding the the regime of Szálasi, ‘the last Hitler’s ally’ who recommenced Holocaust in Hungary not long before the Red Army marched into the Hungarian territory.
What is too much in Germany for the French and even the Hungarian cannot be accepted by Russia where the memory of the Great Patriotic War and the fighting against Nazism have a sacred meaning. Therefore, it is important not to go too far regretting that Germany did not give power to those to whom we would have never given it either.
It is a different story, as the same people (our opponents in German and overall Western leadership) are to blame for this ‘renaissance of Fascism’, be it real, mock, propagandist or anything else. History shows that Fascism gains power among Germans when Germany is excessively humiliated.
For example, when they are made to cut social programmes for the sake of donating billions to Ukraine. When they take away the competitive edge of the industry depriving it of Russian gas. When they blow up its infrastructure suggesting awards for those who executed the terrorist attack (like it was with Nord Stream). When instead of ‘thank you’ they say ‘let’s have more’ and do other rude things.
If one makes it a system and part of an endless circle, Björn Höcke might become a Hitler indeed.