The EU has set up a special group to devise new strategies in response to whoever becomes the new White House occupant. The Europeans are fretful about Donald Trump’s potential re-election as they contemplate a spike in defence spending. But should Kamala Harris be the winner come November, Europe may well face trouble too.
A special team of officials and experts has been set up by the EU to devise a strategy dealing with a possible turnaround in Washington’s policy towards Europe. Translated from the bureaucratese, they are preparing for Trump’s potential return to the White House.
On the surface, it may look like a totally reasonable step given the alarmism channeled by Europe’s mainstream media and the high odds of a Trump win. The GOP candidate is often referred to as an ‘existential threat’, predicting a transatlantic rift in case he gets re-elected.
But the real issue goes beyond Donald Trump’s personality to include the party itself.
‘Trump is unpredictable. But then there’s also the Republican Party, which is less prone to factoring in the EU’s stances than the Democrats. Traditionally, Europe has had a harder time dealing with Republican administrations,’ says political scientist Vadim Trukhachev.
The expert opines that the Republicans gravitate more towards an imperialist, US-centric policy, whereas the Dems embrace a globalist push to enlist allies worldwide. Since the European elites are, too, predominantly globalist, they are on the same wavelength with the Democrats.
Besides, the Republicans have recently taken a hard-right turn, with many classifying Trump’s policies as new isolationism focusing more on America’s domestic issues and prioritising them over foreign incursions and overseas projects.
Since the US is nothing like Moldova, the EU has no hand in appointing a puppet president. ‘Europe has no say whatsoever in these processes and hold no sway over the US elections,’ explains Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher in international relations. ‘Their only option is to adapt to the changing reality.’
This adaptation may be narrowed down to a national level. Indeed, some European countries are already fending for themselves as they have realised there is no one out there to give them a hand.
‘Many European politicians have no direct contacts with Trump or his team. Consequently, what they do is, for example, buy their way into the US legacy media or interest groups to lobby for their agenda and come across as someone Trump can strike a deal with. That is what Polish politicians have been doing recently,’ says the expert.
Another option is an EU-level adaption, which implies putting together joint efforts to protect the European interest from a potential GOP administration.
For instance, Donald Trump may eye slashing US support for Ukraine. This is unacceptable for Europe as the European elites view the conflict with Russia through the lens of ideology and brush off any defeatist sentiment. Therefore, they are preparing to substantially increase their in the Ukraine aid.
‘The Ukraine support programme with no US involvement is on the table. It would involve Canada, Norway, and the UK. Hence the EU’s recent drive to beef up its military capabilities,’ Vadim Trukhachev points out.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has already outlined plans for the European Defence Union. ‘Member states will always retain responsibility for their own troops, from doctrine to deployment,’ she said. The European Commission vows to present its ‘White Paper on the Future of European Defence’ in late autumn.
However, if Trump does not just step away from Ukraine but sets out to cut a deal with Moscow, Europe will have to hit back at the US.
‘They will be unwilling to start the negotiations on Trump’s terms,’ the expert continues. ‘But Washington has a couple of aces up its sleeve to make the EU bend to its will. For instance, the Americans may cut their spending on the European military bases, raise the fuel prices or even sanction European companies on the US market.’
Europe, he reckons, may counter this by deepening its interaction with the DC ‘swamp’, the Dems and the establishment Republicans, and this will go beyond the Ukraine crisis.
‘It may include import duties for European goods and defence budgets,’ says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky. According to the researcher, Trump will leverage his military-industrial lobbyists to have Europeans maximise their military spending. Importantly, these are going the US-made weapons, for European manufacturers will be unable to catch up with the growing demand.
But there is more to the EU’s special task force. On top of the Trump-related scenarios, it will be assessing the implications of Kamala Harris’s potential presidency, too.
Some suggest this contingency bodes well for Europe. ‘Kamala’s Achilles heel is her lack of expertise in foreign policy, a weakness the EU will certainly use to try and manipulate her stance. It is especially true of Nato’s new secretary general, Mark Rutte, a seasoned political heavy-hitter who would exercise a direct influence over Harris’s policies,’ Vadim Trukhachev admits.
Besides, Kamala Harris represents the globalist left wing of the Democratic Party and is heavily influenced by the Clinton family, which makes her a perfect fit for the EU’s current political scene.
That being said, her lack of experience as well as potential radical firebrands in her team may spell trouble for the EU. Harris’s escalatory foreign policy and her willingness to prove her worth may well send the collective West into a reverberating political slump.
The EU needs to accurately assess these risks and figure out ways to limit the damage. Therefore, the special group has its work cut out for it.