The leaked phone conversation between the senior German officers mulling the bombing of the Kerch Bridge has stoked international flames. The German authorities have not denied the veracity of the call but are insisting it features possible scenarios as opposed to plans to attack Russia. However, their Russian counterparts are challenging this theory. As for the experts, they believe the leak will both crush the SDP’s ratings and affect the outcome of the European Parliament election.
The leaked phone conversation between the senior German officers discussing, among other things, the bombing of the Kerch Bridge has been stoking the flames of an international row. On Monday, Germany’s ambassador Alexander Graf Lambsdorff was summoned to the Russian foreign ministry and issued a diplomatic demarche, as evidenced by the agency’s official press release.
The seepage has been the subject of heated discussion in Germany as well. On Sunday, the country’s defence minister Boris Pistorius mentioned the possibility of the public prosecutor’s office launching a probe into the publication of the top-secret conversation by the Russian media.
‘It will depend on the findings of the investigation conducted by the military counterintelligence service. Let’s wait and see. I’m positive that should there be evidence of foul play, it will set off an official investigation by the prosecutor’s office,’ he assured. Besides, he emphasises that the scandal may be part of Russia’s information war against Berlin.
That being said, the minister did not care to elaborate on this ‘war’, given that the audio’s authenticity has been confirmed even by the most vocal Russia critics. In addition, the incident sparked concerns over the German military training. The MPs even initiated conducting new training courses on the use of secure communication channels.
The German opposition has also weighed in on the leak. According to Tagesspiegel, the CDU demanded an emergency meeting of the Bundestag’s defence committee. They insist that the situation calls for urgent steps and the discussion should involve Olaf Scholz.
Apparently, Germany’s political class is more preoccupied with the leak itself rather than the subject of the transcribed phone call. Moreover, the authorities have not denied the authenticity of the conversation. For example, Spiegel points out that the data released by the Russian media is truthful.
Meanwhile, Boris Pistorius maintains that the conversation had nothing to do with Germany’s specific plans. According to him, the officers were broaching possible scenarios and the supply, let alone deployment, of Taurus missiles, had not yet been decided on. Wolfgang Büchner, the deputy spokesperson of the federal government, echoed that rhetoric. Financial Times quotes him as dismissing the idea of Germany prepping up for a war against Russia as ‘absurd’.
Moreover, chancellor Olaf Scholz once again stressed Berlin had no intention to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports. ‘We should have nothing to do with the missiles’ deployment locations or any targets these missiles will be used to hit. I am surprised by the way people seem to overlook the fact that some of our steps may embroil us in the war,’ he said earlier.
However, Russian politicians tend to distrust Germany’s assurances. Dmitry Medvedev took to his Telegram page to condemn the German officials’ attempts to ‘misrepresent the German army officers’ conversation as mere war games’ and berated them as ‘ill-intentioned lies’. According to him, even if the chancellor was unaware of the conversation, ‘history suggests that the military is capable of starting wars without the government officials’ consent’.
A similar reaction was offered by the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova who said, ‘Our understanding is that the Germans have not been completely de-Nazified. The worst part of it is that unless it is stopped by the German people, it will above all take a devastating toll on Germany, as suggested by history.’
‘Both the German elite and the German public are indeed more preoccupied by the leak itself than by the subject of the conversation.
‘The majority of the federal government and roughly one in three Germans believe they should supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles so that their army could strike at Russia’s military assets,’ says the German political scientist, Alexander Rahr.
‘According to the Germans, the Kerch Bridge is one such asset. The country’s defence industry is now fully committed to Ukraine’s cause. A lot of people hope that Russia will be defeated. In light of this, any voices advocating for peace or any other diplomatic solution are being consistently silenced,’ he indicates.
On the other hand, Mr Rahr points out, ‘it will be impossible to downplay the leaked conversation of the senior German officers.’ He says, ‘It is spiralling into a clamorous political scandal. By the looks of it, we can expect chancellor Scholz to vehemently deny Berlin’s plans to fight against Russia while other parties will be torching the chancellor’s indecisiveness.’
‘Most likely, this will be the stance shared by the CDU and the Greens. Notably, the accusers reviling the chancellor as a coward are reluctant to engage in the direct confrontation with Moscow too. Unfortunately, over the past 33 years, western countries have grown accustomed to winning,’ the expert claims.
‘Local politicians just cannot picture Russia emerging victorious. Neither the US nor the EU can afford to have Russia’s military success weaken NATO or Europe. However, the leaked conversation will have no effect on the German domestic political scene,’ Rahr reckons.
‘The so-called moral forces are still siding with Ukraine. From their perspective, Russia is the aggressor while the Ukrainian army are the victims of a surprise attack. There is no initiative to promote peace between the two countries among the Germans. And there is going to be no radical shift in the German elite’s stance,’ the political scientist adds.
Calls for a diplomatic solution are becoming more common. This will lead to an increasing rift within the EU. The upcoming European Parliament election will result in a much wider representation of the right-wing forces that will match the left-wing liberals,’ says Rahr.
Shifting the focus towards the leak rather than the contents thereof helps German politicians to distance themselves from the incident, according to Artem Sokolov, a research fellow with the Centre of European Studies at the Institute of International Studies. ‘The audio is being painted as a routine discussion of a possible scenario, which is ostensibly part of the military command’s job description,’ he says.
‘This will not further undermine the German–Russian relations that have already been at a nadir. The status quo can only shift if the Ukrainian army is going to use Taurus missiles against the Russian targets. But if Germany greenlights the supply of these armaments, the escalation will spin out of control,’ the expert warns.
‘However, the leak will have a powerful impact on Germany’s domestic situation. Defence minister Boris Pistorius has long been the country’s most popular politician. He was rumoured to be the number one contender for the chancellor’s role, representing the ruling SDP,’ Sokolov comments.
‘But the recent developments are now backfiring against the minister.
‘Germany is now eyeing the rebuild of the Bundeswehr that will involve huge amounts of money. However, no action has been taken so far. A leak that serious can tarnish the reputation of the entire defence ministry,’ he continues.
‘Needless to say, most people will be tempted to blame it on the minister’s shortsightedness. But he is unlikely to be sacked. In all likelihood, the German authorities will conduct a thorough probe into the incident. In case it uncovers the gross negligence on the part of the officers, the culprits may be publicly dismissed,’ Sokolov assumes.
‘Except it will not help the SDP anyway. The party is now being associated with a number of failures, and its ratings have hit an all-time low. Up until recently, they were hoping to offset it by Boris Pistorius’s popularity, but the major military screw-up has all but erased this possibility,’ the expert concludes.