Turkey is looking to join BRICS. The matter is going to be broached at the upcoming meeting of the organisation’s foreign ministers in Russia. But why would a NATO member state with an EU application pending for decades suddenly seek alignment with BRICS? What could this unlikely union result in?
During his visit to China Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan announced the country’s intention to join BRICS. The matter is going to be discussed at the meeting of the grouping’s foreign ministers slated to take place in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, on 10 and 11 June. Fidan noted that since some European nations opposed Turkey’s joining the EU, the government viewed BRICS as an alternative integration platform.
According to Fidan, Turkey cannot overlook the fact that ‘as a major cooperation platform, BRICS offers a fair alternative to other nations’. ‘We see BRICS as having some good potential,’ the minister added.
Turkey is both a NATO member state and a party to the EU–Turkey Customs Union. Almost four decades ago the country applied for a membership in what was then the European Economic Community. In 1999, it officially became an EUcandidate country.
In 2005, Turkey began negotiating its accession to the EU, but those talks hit a standstill due to the parties’ disagreements over human rights and foreign policy issues. In recent years Turkey’s Western allies have repeatedly slammed the country for its ties to Moscow.
The Russian president’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told the media that Russia praised the other nations’ interest in a BRICS membership, but ‘it is unlikely that the organisation will be able to align with everyone’s interests’. Peskov has been quoted as saying that BRICS seeks to maintain contacts with the interested parties. ‘To this end, we are mulling various formats of these contacts,’ Peskov stressed.
BRICS encompasses Russia, Brazil, India, China, South Africa, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Egypt and Iran. Chairing the organisation in 2024, Russia is scheduled to host the grouping’s 16th summit in Kazan in October. The New Development Bank estimates that by 2028, BRICS will have accounted for 35% to 40% of the global GDP, with the G7’s share dropping to 27.8%.
BRICS offers membership regardless of the countries’ political and economic systems. Accession is possible through a consensual decision of the grouping’s member states. As the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said recently, the only prepequisite is the country’s willingness to follow the organisation’s key principle, ‘the sovereign equality of the nations, which our Western counterparts struggle to observe’. According to Lavrov, almost 30 nations are seeking to step up their cooperation with BRICS as they have submitted their applications.
These countries include Algeria, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Honduras, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Morocco, Nigeria, Palestine, Senegal, Thailand, Venezuela and Vietnam. In April, Lavrov conducted talks with his Bolivian counterpart Celinda Sosa and voiced Russia’s support behind the country’s BRICS aspirations.
Experts agree that Turkey’s membership would allow the country to further bolster its economic ties with the other member states. ‘BRICS stands for large and extensive export markets that are looking forward to Turkish products. Russia is awash with Turkish apparel and fresh fruit. Turkish construction companies are operating in the country too. The same goes for the other member states. Therefore, economy-wise, Turkey’s accession is long overdue,’ economist Ivan Lizan believes.
‘BRICS is an informal club where each country pursues its own interests. They are united in their exhaustion with the G7 states and the US. These nations want to set up their own efficient organisation with transparent and enforceable rules,’ he continues. ‘If the parties involved do not mind the expansion, Turkey will be a valuable addition. Russia will not oppose the move as the two states have a history of fruitful cooperation.’
The economist doubts that India and China will give Turkey the cold shoulder. ‘No one is likely to dispute Turkey’s accession. That a NATO member state is looking to join a largely anti-American alliance is already a stunning fact. Turkey is interested in selling its products as opposed to engaging in geopolitical games,’ he notes.
According to the experts, Ankara’s willingness to join BRICS is going to boost the organisation’s status. But a would-be candidate may refuse to join, as was the case with Argentina. The Latin American nation was scheduled to become a BRICS member in 2024, but the newly elected president withdrew the application.
‘As long as the BRICS membership criteria are still vague, welcoming in Turkey may be complicated. A long-term solution may involve a set number of permanent members, with new inductees becoming part of BRICS+,’ says Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor of the European Studies Department, Faculty of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University, and a Valdai Discussion Club expert.
In his opinion, Turkey’s accession to BRICS would be facilitated by the country’s withdrawal from NATO, but ‘it is unlikely that the Turks are considering this option’. ‘Optimistic pundits thought BRICS could evolve into a full-fledged intergovernmental organisation with its own charter and secretarial body <…> But Turkey’s accession would show that BRICS remains a Eastern-style forum to the tune of APEC, which looks bad for the forum’s institutional future,’ the political scientist suggests. He also believes that by articulating its BRICS bid, Turkey may well be dropping hints at another round of bargaining with Europe that has put Ankara’s EU application on hold.
‘As a large state and a powerful civilisation, Turkey is reluctant to align with any international organisation. It is reputed to be NATO’s enfant terrible and it is far from being the alliance’s most reliable stalwart. In other words, Turkey’s alleged willingness to join BRICS is illustrative of the multi-faceted foreign policy the country has been pursuing over the past few decades. Erdoğan sees the West’s setbacks, hence his attempt to diversify his country’s international ties, including to BRICS member states,’ Tkachenko explains.
‘Notably, BRICS does not require that the new joiners renounce their current memberships. India, for one, is ramping up its military cooperation with the US. That is why Turkey’s NATO allegiance does not prevent it from joining BRICS as the grouping never issues any ultimatums, instead focusing on mutually beneficial economic partnerships,’ says political commentator Yuri Svetov.
That being said, the experts agrees that Ankara may use its BRICS-related statement to bargain with the EU. ‘Turkey has been an EU candidate nation for decades. It realises the union is unwilling to have the country as its member. I assume it may well be their blackmailing tactic towards the EU. If you decline to accept us, we are going to join BRICS,’ the pundit adds.
Besides, Yuri Svetov thinks Recep Tayyip Erdoğan does not adhere to a strict foreign policy. Instead, he is looking for opportunities to bolster the country’s economic and foreign policy hand. ‘Erdoğan is seeking more profitable trading venues, like a true merchant. Turkey’s major forte is its location between Europe and Asia, making it a powerful liaison between the two great continents. Therefore, if Turkey were to join BRICS, it would definitely play into the organisation’s hands,’ Svetov summarises.