The fabled Sinn Féin party has finally snagged the top office in Northern Ireland and doubled down on its plans to exit the UK, which will clearly be a tall order. Here is why.
Northern Ireland’s unprecedented political crisis where the country has had no legitimate government and first minister is finally over. However, the end of this crisis sparks a new one involving the first-ever government led by a Sinn Féin politician (vice-president), Michelle O’Neill.
From an English person’s perspective, she is a nationalist and a separatist advocating the acts of terror.
Sinn Féin (‘We Ourselves’), a century-old radical brand, spans several organisations. But traditionally, it has been closely associated with the Irish Republican Army (IRA) that was waging an armed struggle against the Brits to create a single and sovereign Ireland. Sinn Féin used to be the IRA’s political wing.
With the IRA now defunct, First Minister O’Neill is still sympathetic towards its militants and vows to take over its cause peacefully by separating Ulster from the UK and uniting Ireland.
Once in office, the politician has overtly challenged the British government’s official statement about the question of the Irish borders being ‘settled for decades to come’. According to O’Neill, her appointment as first minister is testament to the ongoing change and the fact that Ireland enters a ‘decade of opportunity’.
For the new Ulster government, this is the way of bidding farewell to London by finalising the historic unification of the Irish nation much to the British crown’s displeasure.
The Irish may be justified in treating the English people as a nation of occupiers and oppressors behind the genocide against the Irish, even though it all pertains to a bygone era. On the other hand, the memories of the IRA’s terror are very much a recent thing.
Let us not go down the rabbit hole of speculation about whether the ambitious Irish leader will succeed, but the reality is that not all of the Irish view the English this way. The task O’Neill is facing is as tricky as it is more complicated than that of, say, the Scottish National Party seeking the secession from the UK. The Scottish counterpart has been long in power and has even held an unsuccessful independence vote.
Irish history is often seen through the lens that is similar to Scottish. In other words, the separatist authorities of Northern Ireland are expected to stage their own referendum that may well end with Sinn Féin’s triumph.
However, the Scottish model cannot be replicated because this call for unity defies the Good Friday Agreement, which put an end to Ireland’s decades-long armed conflict that claimed thousands of lives. Revisiting the treaty would be a dicey undertaking. More importantly, though, it would imply the consent of all parties involved, that is, the three of them. Two of those vehemently oppose this conversation, let alone the actual unification of Ireland.
One of the parties is London, the capital of the once-great empire whose capabilities are now at a dismal 500-year low. The geopolitical ambitions nursed by the former PM Boris Johnson, including Brexit and anti-Russian policy as well as the misuse of funds have debilitated the UK, which, to the Irish, might seem like a good window of opportunity – a 10-year window, in O’Neill’s words.
Another party to the controversy are the Irish Unionists supporting the UK. Their standing has recently taken a hit due to the overall unpopularity of the British government. Yet, they are, of course, Irish people too who are reputed to be stubborn and feisty.
Crucially, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was largely to blame for the two-year government crisis. Over the past decade Sinn Féin and the DUP have been engaged in a cross-community power-sharing model where the winning party lands the first minister’s office and the runner-up nominates a deputy first minister with almost identical powers. Any important decision, including appointments, requires a bipartisan consensus or at least non-contention from one of the two parties, which underpins their peaceful co-rule.
Sinn Féin won the election back in May 2022. Ever since, they have had 27 seats in the 90-seat assembly against the DUP’s 25. But throughout the period that followed, the Unionists declined to name deputy first minister and thus take a back seat to the Sinn Féin-led government.
Technically, they did not protest O’Neill’s candidacy, much less the people’s pick since such protests would imperil the peace process. Instead, they targeted 10 Downing Street or rather the ‘sausage war’ and the way to end it. Simply put, Northern Ireland has special rights when it comes to trading with the EU, which, according the Unionists, erodes the British unity.
Importantly, Northern Ireland enjoys ampler opportunities than the rest of the UK. However, Paul Givan, the DUP leader, was obstinate enough to resign as first minister in February 2022 in what was seen as a shocking move and then be hindering the new ministerial appointment up until recently.
The history and the dynamic of the internal Irish conflict suggest that the Unionists and the separatists are equally determined to scrap it out to the very end. Even with London proceeding on the downward spiral and Sinn Féin gaining more control, the Unionists may take up arms to avoid the Balkanisation of the UK.
The DUP is not the only Unionist party and by far not the most radical or conservative. The thing about Sinn Féin is that it is mostly a left-wing force with a socialist agenda prioritizing minority rights, putting it right on par with the Scottish National Party. However, the latter is headed by first minister Humza Yousaf, a Muslim of Pakistani descent.
In other words, odd as that may sound, the image of a sulky nationalist ready to put up an armed struggle to protect their home and disdainful of the trendy multiculturalist agenda is more fitting for a Unionist than a Sinn Féin supporter. Moreover, after exiting the UK, Sinn Féin plans on rejoining the EU as part of the united Ireland.
The Unionist resistance, the unwavering faith in the British greatness, the power of old money and Sinn Féin’s relative majority in the assembly all render the impending collapse of the UK at the hands of Northern Ireland highly unlikely. When it comes to this, Scotland is still in the driver’s seat. However, the ‘decade of opportunity’ at least connotes hope.