The snap election date announced by PM Rishi Sunak has stunned even the fellow Tories. Analysts say the upcoming vote will be ‘historic’ as it is going to see the Conservatives steamrolled by Labour. The latter are likely to secure the majority in the parliament following a 14-year stint as the opposition. What is the UK going to look like post-Sunak and how will the election affect the UK–Russia relations?
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak scheduling a snap election to be held on 4 July has caused a furore in the Western media. Sunak’s request was granted by King Charles III who is going to dissolve parliament. ‘Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future and to decide whether we want to build on the progress we have made or risk going back to square one. With no plan and no certainty,’ said Sunak.
The experts have mostly been debating the election date. Under the current legislation, it was to be held ahead of 28 January 2025. However, few of them doubt that the vote will indeed snap the 14-year Tory rule.
According to CNN, the polls clearly favour Labour who are ahead by about 20 points at the start of the campaign. In terms of the total seats won, it means that either Labour are going to cruise to an electoral win or the Conservatives are just going to lose anyway.
Henry Hill, a Guardian contributor, believes that scheduling the national election for the autumn ‘would give the government the maximum possible time to turn things round’. But the current Cabinet must be hoping that ‘events in Ukraine or the Middle East could trigger another global shock and destroy the government’s narrative about economic recovery’.
CNN projects the Sunak-led party to centre its platform around the illegal immigration, whereas Labour are going to slam the government’s price control efforts, criticise the healthcare system and bring up the public rows that have tarnished the Tories’ reputation in the eyes of the British voters.
CNBC analysts claim the election date has come as a surprise to most Conservatives who believed the vote would take place around the time of the November election in the US. But now Labour will be doing their utmost to lambaste the Conservative legacy spanning the past 14 years. The upcoming election is hailed as a potentially ‘historic’ vote that will most certainly see Rishi Sunak defeated in a landslide. Labour are really looking to secure the majority in the British parliament.
Political scientist Malek Dudakov says: ‘The Conservatives are largely responsible for the overall complicated plight the UK finds itself in. Granted, the system has not collapsed, but all of the domains have been affected by various issues, including critical ones.’
The pandemic-ravaged economy has yet to recover, and the growth figures do not look promising. The inflation rate peaked in October 2022 at more than 11%. In H2 2023, the national economy hit a recession before finally posting a 0.6% growth in Q1 2024.
‘In terms of the GDP numbers, the UK is struggling to match its pre-lockdown 2019 figures. The real income is at the same level it was 15 years ago and fails to match the inflation rate,’ the expert adds.
The housing market has been going through a seriously rough patch, with most Brits unable to afford the real estate prices. ‘A shortage of medical professionals has sparked a severe healthcare crisis. Medical appointments in NHS hospitals involve the wait of 20 to 30 weeks, that is, roughly half a year,’ the expert notes. The immigration issues have not been solved either, with about 1 million people coming to the UK every year, adding to the existing problems related to the social care system.
‘The Tories have nothing to show for. If their 2010 vows are anything to go by, their policies have been riddled with failure. The government debt has only increased to equal the country’s GDP. The crime rates have been spiralling too,’ says Malek Dudakov. ‘The public’s exhaustion over the Conservative policymaking has led to the current government’s plummeting approval ratings. That is why Sunak will not succeed in converting a surprise early election date into his party’s success, given the 20-point deficit enjoyed by Labour. A six-week election campaign will not be enough to turn the tables on their main rivals.’
‘The public has a contract with the government whereby the latter is not supposed to worsen the voters’ well-being. But it has got dramatically worse indeed, and so, the voters will be looking for someone to blame and pay the price,’ says Vladimir Bruter, an expert with the International Institute of Humanities and Political Studies.
‘Labour will be equally unable to offer anything to the British voters, save for the professed return to normalcy. Hence their pledge to improve relations with the EU. The UK is in need of a rebuild, and Labour are now empowered to initiate it, but they are reluctant to do so for a number of reasons,’ the expert claims.
Arguably, the main plot behind the upcoming election is the margin the Labour Party is going to win. But they are unlikely to reconsider the government’s stance on the Ukrainian conflict, Malek Dudakov believes. ‘Sir Keir Starmer has recently toured the Baltic states to promote a militarist agenda. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy and his colleagues have visited Ukraine and vowed to continue the arms supplies,’ the pundit notes. Vladimir Bruter, too, believes Labour will not be mending fences with Russia.