The leaders of the Baltic states may eye sending troops to Ukraine. Moreover, Latvian prime minister Evika Siliņa cited her willingness to have Russia and Belarus shielded by the ‘Iron Curtain’. Experts claim the Baltic elites are building their identities off of the confrontation with Moscow to gain more perks from the West. What can this policy lead to?
The leaders of the Baltic states may send their troops to Ukraine. Specifically, Latvian prime minister Evika Siliņa did not rule out the possibility of NATO troops ending up in the special operation zone. However, according to her, some of the Alliance’s procedures have more to do with the military than politicians.
She emphasised the importance of in-depth scrutiny into whether sending the troops would help the Ukrainian army. Besides, Siliņa stressed the Baltic states’ aspiration to build an ‘Iron Curtain’ that would protect them from Russia and Belarus.
According to her, the policy will mostly focus on attaining the economic and fuel independence from Moscow. However, it is easier said than done. The regional leaders are therefore still figuring out possible solutions. ‘It takes time,’ the Latvian prime minister indicated.
Notably, the 48-year-old’s spurt up the career ladder has been all but rapid. Following her botched 2011 run for a parliamentary seat as she represented the Reform Party, Siliņa, a University of Latvia graduate majoring in law, was promoted to secretary of the interior ministry in 2013. Ten years later she took over Krišjānis Kariņš as the country’s prime minister.
During the brief spell in her current role, Siliņa has already spewed a slew of anti-Russian proclamations. According to Delfi, barely a month into the tenure, she labelled Moscow as the biggest security threat to northern Europe. She added she was hoping for NATO support, as the Alliance proves to be a ‘dependable partner’.
In early March Siliņa compared Russia to an ‘unpredictable alcoholic’, as reported by LSM, a Latvian publication. She called on the regional allies to come to grips with this fact and pointed out that Riga follows a ‘strict scenario’ aimed at bolstering the country’s military capabilities.
Meanwhile, Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas may also eye sending the troops to Ukraine. Asked whether the government is going to send the Estonian servicemember to the conflict zone, she said that would require a mandate issued by the Riigikogu, the republic’s parliament. She believes the MPs are capable of sorting it out. ERR live-streamed the government session. Kallas also regards Russia’s policy as a direct threat to Tallinn.
The experts note, though, that the Baltic states’ militarist rhetoric is at odds with the region’s economic interests. Shielding from Russia would take a heavy financial toll on Latvia’s and Estonia’s population. But an attempt to cower to Washington is rendering them oblivious to the needs of their own citizens.
‘If the US embassy calls the Estonian prime minister and tells her what to do, she is going to do it. The same goes for the troops. If the US orders them to send in the troops, the Baltic states will comply. The thing is, although the Baltic states do have their own flags, national anthems, coats-of-arms, lands and people, they have no sovereignty,’ says Nikolai Mezhevich, president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies (RABS) and a lead research fellow at the Institute of Europe.
‘But the US is not ordering it partly because the Baltic states have tiny military capabilities. Their small armies are poorly equipped and inexperienced when it comes to real combat action,’ says the expert. He also brings up Evika Siliņa’s ‘Iron Curtain’ quote. ‘Siliņa’s idea of an ‘Iron Curtain’ will shoot herself in the leg. The Baltic states are still connected to Russia’s power grid. Severing these ties will have an adverse effect on their economies. On top of that, they are receiving commission fees as they help supply goods to Russia. If they no longer need this money, this is the way to go,’ the researcher notes.
‘By the looks of it, this rhetoric has to do with the Baltic states’ willingness to boost and exaggerate their real status within the EU. Today they are almost unable to influence the Union’s decision-making. On the flip side, they appear to be perfect Russophobes and that is what they are trying to capitalise on,’ Mr Mezhevich suggests.
The Baltic states are too weak to send just their troops to Ukraine, German political pundit Alexander Rahr claims. According to him, the statements coming from Kaja Kallas and Evika Siliņa only seek to drag the Americans, the Brits, the Germans and the French into it too. ‘Importantly, it feels like the Baltic politicians are out of their minds. How they are going to justify the deaths of their soldiers to their people is beyond comprehension,’
Rahr wonders. He admits they may not have given it a thought yet as they are adamant about scrapping it out with Moscow. ‘Regrettably, these republics are building their historical and political identities off of the perpetual confrontation with Russia. This has effectively been the case since the 1990s. The Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian elites believe western support hinges upon their aversion to Russia. According to them, the more pressure they are putting on Moscow, the more the perks they will get from the West,’ the political scientist explains.
He says that while the Germans and the French have been considering a common Europe inclusive of Russia over the past few decades, the Baltic states have been supporting the idea of pushing Russia towards Asia for good. ‘Personally, I am clueless as to the benefits of this policy. To be honest, I have always deemed it suicidal,’ Alexander Rahr admits.
‘That being said, the US elites have always been extremely supportive of this policy. The republics have in turn strived to become a buffer zone between the West and Russia, contemplating it as their historic role. Now they are trying to prove themselves right by engaging in the Ukraine conflict,’ he says. Alexander Rahr goes on to call the Latvian prime minister a ‘paragon of the Baltic elites’ current identity’.
‘Evika Siliņa is essentially identical to her Estonian counterpart, Kaja Kallas. Both represent the EU’s pro-feminist policy, and so, they need to constantly prove they are on par with male politicians in their capacity as liberal ethos fighters,’ the expert reckons. ‘The EU leadership really thinks Ukraine can and must defeat Russia using the western arms supplies. It is beyond doubt, though, that the real experts well-versed in modern warfare beg to differ,’ he says.
‘Younger politicians, including Kallas and Siliņa, have no memories of the consequences of World War II. They prioritise the West’s liberal agenda and, I hate to admit, are apparently capable of provoking a major war in Europe,’ Alexander Rahr warns.
Senator Konstantin Dolgov believes that the Baltic states’ anti-Russian policy goes back quite a long while. ‘For example, we have supplying them with electricity for years. Now their politicians are poised to snub it, which runs contrary to their economic interests. True, they can produce power from alternative sources, but it will come at a heavy price. And while these countries do not have a lot of manufacturing facilities, their people will be the ones to take a big hit,’ he says. ‘Besides, what are the countries that are mulling sending the troops to Ukraine? These are mostly smaller states with very limited military capabilities.
They act as provocateurs egging on their colleagues to engage in risky behaviours. The western nations in possession of more advanced military capabilities have a more restrained stance, even though they have their hot heads,’ the senator stresses. ‘Are the Baltic nations the ones behind this initiative? Absolutely not. These countries act as the US proxies that help Washington reshape its EU plans. Moreover, these statements are amplified by the anti-Russian stance of local politicians,’ the commentator adds.