Robert Fico’s recent trip to Moscow has baffled the West and freaked out the Ukrainian government. The Slovakian prime minister met Vladimir Putin to discuss future LNG supplies in the wake of Ukraine’s refusal to renew the gas transit contract. Experts say the EU will be stepping up its pressure on Fico. But are any alternative solutions on the table?
22 December saw Slovakian prime minister Robert Fico meet Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss the supplies of Russian gas to Slovakia following 1 January 2025 that will involve Ukrainian territory. Fico opened up about Putin’s willingness to continue the transit, adding that it will soon be ‘practically impossible’ because of Volodymyr Zelensky’s threats to terminate the process. According to President Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, Moscow has been in talks with Russia’s European partners over a steady resource supply.
Notably, Zelensky took to social media to comment on the meaning. He called on the Slovakian law enforcement to probe into Fico’s ties to Russia. ‘Moscow is offering a huge discount to Fico, but Slovakia is the one paying for them. Such discounts really come at a price. Russia swaps them for national sovereignty or shady deals. The Slovakian law enforcement and intelligence agencies should probe into it,’ Zelensky wrote.
On 20 December, Zelensky proposed that Ukraine quit being a transit country for the Russian gas. The pipeline will be resumed, he insisted, provided that the suppliers will not be paid to before the end of the conflict. ‘Who else is going to offer us free gas?’ Fico must have fumed. According to him, cold-turkeying the supplies will have an adverse effect across the EU and cause a spike in gas prices. In case Kiev refuses to serve as an intermediary for those supplies, a ‘serious conflict’ between the two nations may erupt.
Politico refers to the Moscow meeting as a ‘shock visit’. The publication describes the Slovak’s trip to Russia as one that ‘defies the bloc’s public commitments to end its reliance on Moscow for gas imports’. Serhiy Leshchenko, Zelensky’s aide, decried the step as not being conducive to peace and called it a decoy.
However, Andrzej Szejna, Poland’s Secretary of State, refrained from condemning the visit, citing Slovakia’s urgent need to secure alternative supply routes in the wake of Ukraine’s refusal to renew the gas transit contract.
Hungary is also increasingly concerned about the recent developments. According to the country’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, the government is looking for ways to keep the transit alive. Specifically, he suggested reassigning the gas ownership to the buyer the moment the fuel makes it to Ukraine.
‘The gas transit is a pressing matter for Slovakia in the absence of clear-cut scenarios,’ says political scientist Fedor Lukyanov. ‘If Ukraine pulls out of the transit agreement, both the source of the gas and potential prices become a contingency.’
Importantly, it is Ukraine that has initiated closing the supply route. It would only be natural for Fico to try and renegotiate the deal with the Zelensky administration. ‘Kiev is not looking for a deal here. But the Slovakian PM may have had an idea of how he could tackle it, and he may have decided to float it to Putin,’ the expert suggests.
The EU governments’ reactions to Fico’s Moscow trip are of interest too. The analyst believes that by ‘alternative routes’, the Polish officials mean Slovakia’s need to give up trading with Russia.
‘That is the EU’s overarching policy,’ Lukyanov opines. ‘They are adamant about pulling out of any deals with Moscow and opting for a workaround. This is their unwavering political commitment. But the chasm between their political stance and the reality is widening.’
The expert blasts a number of European incumbent administrations over the effort they are making to cut ties to Russia in the fossil fuel market while purchasing record-high amounts of Russian LNG. The pundit predicts that, barring Orbán, European leaders will be torching Fico’s meeting with Putin.
‘That being said, I am not inclined to think fellow EU leaders are going to destroy the Slovakian PM,’ Lukyanov notes. ‘The European hawks hate the fact that both Fico and Orbán are interacting with Putin. But ultimately, they do realise they will be held accountable by their own citizens. Hence their attempts to hammer out an energy supply deal.’
However, German political scientist Alexander Rahr begs to disagree. He believes the EU will not side with Slovakia in its feud with Ukraine. ‘Brussels supports Zelensky in his willingness to pull the plug on fuel supplies,’ Rahr comments. ‘Previously, much to their own detriment, the EU chose to shun Russia’s resources. They adopted this strategy despite the spiralling energy crisis caused by the rising gas prices, which further damages the European economies.’
According to him, the ‘moral’ aspect of the step outweighed the considerations of the Europeans’ well-being. They are sticking to this policy in the hopes of Ukraine winning the conflict. However, Slovakia’s inability to regain access to the Russian gas is a burning issue. Rahr brings up TurkStream, an alternative and still-active pipeline.
‘Should Slovakia oppose Ukraine’s policy, the EU will favour Ukraine,’ Rahr maintains. ‘Brussels is trying hard to isolate Fico, Orbán and other politicians seeking trade relations with Russia. Things are heating up. This escalation is unfolding in the face of Trump’s upcoming inauguration. The winter months are going to be a politically challenging period.’ As for the supply routes, the current one links west Siberia to Slovakia through Russia’s Sudzha and Ukraine.
‘Zelensky’s refusal to renew the gas supply deal starting 1 January 2025 has led experts to propose a new scenario where Slovakia could be purchasing the LNG at the Russia–Ukraine border,’ says economist Ivan Lizan. ‘In this case, it would instantly become Slovakia’s property.’ But the initiative is hindered by a number of obstacles – not least of all, Kiev’s reluctance to let it happen.
A similar scheme has proven benefical in the Russian oil trade. ‘Hungarian-based MOL is purchasing Russian crude oil, which officially changes hands at the Ukraine–Belarus border,’ the expert points out. But no sooner had a similar solution been proposed for the gas supplies than Ukraine rolled out its own demands. For one, the current administration wanted Azerbaijan to broker the transit. Then, they required that the Azerbaijani government assure that Russia stayed out of striking the Ukrainian gas infrastructure.
‘It means Baku was expected to vow to keep the Russian armed forces from striking the Bilche-Volitsa gas storage facility in Ukraine’s Lviv region,’ the economist expounds. ‘But this sounded preposterous, and Azerbaijan snubbed the offer.’
According to Lizan, Kiev’s demands are well in line with their current policy that does not prioritise the Russian gas transit. ‘In the 1990s and 2000s, their government was profiteering off the transit deals, the presidents being in charge of that “business”. But following the Maidan events, the subsequent administrations preferred to focus on looting and budget cash grabs,’ the expert opines.
‘But ever since 2022, the government has been showered with unprecedented fortunes. The Zelensky administration is capitalising on this wealth. Hence their unwillingness to renew the gas transit deal,’ Lizan stresses. The second problem here is that Russia has temporarily lost control over the Sudzha gas metering station. But according to the economist, even if an alternative gas supply agreement is possible, Kiev will be going to great lengths to sabotage the transit.
Chances are, the Ukrainian side will be rationing the LNG in piecemeal fashion. ‘Besides, the pipeline may suddenly develop a crack or even explode,’ Lizan warns. However, Slovakia does not have room for manoeuvre.
‘To my mind, the Slovakian government can be putting more pressure on Ukraine to secure a new contract,’ the economist suggests. ‘Another option is having Germany greenlight the supply routes through the Czech Republic. Hungary may also lend a hand, but the odds are really slim. Fico has inherited this plight from his predecessors. Had he been elected a couple of years earlier, Slovakia might have been connected to TurkStream,’ he concludes.