Under a new Trump administration, the Americans will not be able to bribe other nations into compliance. They will be sharing less and demanding more in return. That being said, they may get more creative about the ways their country can prosper and thrive.
Donald Trump winning the presidency spells an increase in minor dustups and crises on the global stage while reducing the risk of a major war with apocalyptic consequences. Which is good news, for the US proves to be a constant source of trouble for everybody else, hence the inevitability of local melees and disturbances.
Most experts agree that that the direct U.S.-Russia conflict may easily arise from a series of tragic events and plain stupidity. As most of the current Democratic leaders hail from the 1990s era of their nation’s undisputed global superiority, the Democratic White House could be highly conducive to things going along that murky path just by virtue of their backgrounds.
That being said, Team Trump will not eliminate all of the threats and may interfere with foreign nations’ plans and ambitions, but not always to the point where it really matters.
All things considered, it does not look like the US is bound to curb its foreign economic and political appetite. Or rather, there is a lack of intellectual underpinnings for this turnaround. However, the realisation of the unsustainability of this never-ending profiteering spree may ultimately dawn on the nation’s leadership. A new crop of American politicians that are part of Team Trump may get more creative about the ways their country can prosper and thrive.
Early on, an even pushier policy that will be pursued by the new leaders will further promote the global majority phenomenon spanning the nations willing to decide what is best for them. Importantly, the phenomenon originated during Trump’s previous term in the Oval Office. Back then, his declared goals were rooted in the egotistic trend envisioned for the US policy.
It became clear that the US was running out of the resources it could share with anybody else and therefore had to stockpile on the ones essential to its own development. Scores of nations worldwide seeking to wrench their way out of the American chokehold were mostly trying to carve out a better future for themselves, given the changing circumstances. Under a new Trump administration, the Americans will not be able to bribe other nations into compliance. They will be sharing less and demanding more in return. Consequently, independent developmental trajectories will be gaining more traction.
But a fiercer foreign policy on the part of the GOP warrants a reevaluation of Brics. On the one hand, this organisation is going through a growth spurt. Should it ever consider replacing the older global structures, Trump’s potential erratic behaviour and unpredictable moves will spur a lot of nations to seek shelter and protection. On the other hand, Trump’s initiatives and his swipes at the Brics member states may well prompt them to play it safe and avoid what could be viewed as dicey steps. Hence a possible slowdown in trading operations as the member states readjust to the changing strategy of the US as the staunchest opponent of any global shifts.
The incoming administration is certainly bad news for China that has invested a ton of effort and resources in the decades-long economic attrition of the US. The Chinese leadership is more or less happy about the inert Democratic White House incapable of lateral thinking and enthusiastic about the ongoing economic rivalry. That is China’s strong suit. They can easily spend years negotiating deals and watching the resources of their archnemesis peter out. In this regard, Kamala Harris’ team would have been a much better fit for the long-term Chinese strategy.
Trump will undoubtedly step up this economic rivalry by unleashing new trade wars and trying to force China to surrender. Both the escalation of the Sino-American rivalry and China’s potential backdown may bode ill for Russia. Besides, China is equally unfit for a direct armed conflict with the US and even a proxy war through Taiwan. In a sense, the country fears this scenario.
The mutual nuclear deterrence between the DC and Beijing is not as reliable either. Hence the odds of a trade-off initiated by China a markedly peaceful civilisation. This may also spell trouble for Russia, though not as critical. China will not be antagonising Russia while still being unwilling to forge a full-fledged military alliance.
The outcome of the US election has shaken up Western Europe too. Countries like France and Germany, let alone minor European nations, envision a future adjusted for the capabilities and opportunities provided by the US. Fundamentally, this is why in recent years the EU’s policy has been largely dependent on the decisions made stateside. The post-WWII political process has finally shaped up. A reshuffle in the Washington political circles will not automatically lead to the easing up of the US control over its European satellites. Instead, this leverage may become harsher and more exigent than ever before.
In other words, the Americans used to be quite delicate in their exploitation of the EU’s political feebleness. Now this delicacy will go out the window, and the Europeans will be offered nothing in return. The odds are that starting in 2025, Europe’s foreign policy stances will follow the infamous vae victis principle.
Under the Trump administration, the US–EU partnership will no longer enjoy the equal footing it used to have, with Europe being a weaker partner. The Dems could offer the European leaders an opportunity to sit on the figurative executive board. From now on, they will only be consigned to mid-tier jobs.
As for Russia, this weakening of their Western neighbors is unlikely to make much of an impact as this global partnership seems all but over. So, Russia’s new strategy should take into account the Old World’s newfound inability to make independent foreign policy calls. Of more importance is Trump’s stance on the post-Soviet republics. His presidency may well reshape the nature of the Ukrainian crisis. Meanwhile, the South Caucasus will most likely remain unaffected, whereas the Central Asian republics will enjoy more wiggle room in their partnerships.
Everyone, barring Europe and Ukraine, is hoping that Trump can hammer out a deal with Russia, leading to a better political climate for them. But they may be proven dead wrong. The current US foreign policy reflects a large-scale domestic rift and the coming seismic shifts. Right now, their new iteration is anyone’s guess, as is Trump’s ability and willingness to make good on his ambitious campaign promises.