Politico writes about the EU’s need to switch to its own, Washington-free defence policy. Meanwhile, many European NATO countries are incapable of spending two per cent of their GDP on the bloc’s needs. Experts believe these circumstances make creating an independent security system a tall order. Will Washington pull their military protection back from Europe and why is the EU wary of the prospect?
‘Donald Trump freed Europe from the confines of the American security bubble,’ Politico writes commenting on the former president’s remark that he ‘would encourage’ Russia to attack NATO countries if they did not pay for their defence.
‘By casting doubt over America’s commitment to NATO in such a direct and fundamental way, he effectively drove a stake through the alliance’s heart,’ Politico notes. The article contains serious calls for the redrafting of the EU defence policy. ‘Europe would be crazy to leave its security every four years up to the whims of about 50,000 American swing-state voters,’ the publication argues.
When it comes to the unfolding events, the EU member states have no one to blame but themselves. ‘What Europeans don’t like to hear is that Trump has a point: They have been freeloading. What’s more, it was always unrealistic to expect the U.S. to pick up the tab for European security ad infinitum,’ the article stresses.
‘Europe was lulled back into a false sense of security by Biden’s warm embrace. Instead of going on a war footing by forcing industry to ramp up armament production and reinstating conscription in countries like Germany where it was phased out, Europe nestled itself in America’s skirts,’ the publication asserts.
Therefore, the EU ‘has no choice but to start preparing a Plan B’. Meanwhile, the transition to independent security policy is going to be a tough one as only 11 out of NATO’s 31 countries are estimated to have hit the spending target in 2023. According to Politico, even Germany cannot afford to spend two per cent of its GDP for the alliance’s needs.
Meanwhile, it defies the official stance of Chancellor Olaf Scholz who conducted a joint press conference with Polish PM Donald Tusk where he said Berlin is ready to contribute the amount in 2024. The meeting was streamed by n-tv. According to the German leader, the country is determined to adhere to this strategy in the future.
The chancellor indicated that Germany currently has amassed €100bn in special defence funds, 80 per cent of which has been used. According to Scholz, the Bundeswehr is capable of executing the orders to be delivered ‘in the late 2020s and 2030s’, and soon Germany will be the biggest military-industrial spender in Europe.
German political scientist Alexander Rahr believes that Berlin will be able to deliver on that promise, the only caveat being its ability to reassess the priorities. The expert admits that the government ‘will have to cut social budgets and scrap infrastructure and economic modernisation projects’.
Other experts point out that EU countries have spent too long being reliant on the US defence capabilities. Therefore, the prospect of Washington declining to protect its allies is perceived by Europe as an existential threat. The EU will have to create its own security system, which will be a tall order. ‘Europeans do not have a strategy that would be different from the US one.
‘Almost the entire EU has voluntarily accepted DC’s lead in the matters of security and geopolitics. They have no intention to part ways with the US because they fear getting lost in today’s complex international realities,’
Says Alexander Rahr. ‘That being said, politicians mention their willingness to distance from the US and come up with their own security blueprint. Except they do not make appreciable headway. We have France, Italy or Austria that are the most vocal proponents of Europe’s independence. But their aspirations are deterred by eastern European nations. Poland, for one, does not envision a future without the US.’
It is too early to say that Washington will refuse to protect Europe, Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities, maintains. ‘Undoubtedly, the EU would benefit from the long-term US protection. It is simple: they do not need to spend money on their defence. In exchange, they are just following the US lead,’ he adds.
‘But should Europe be willing to put together a joint defence system, it can succeed. However, it will be a tough process. First, it will take at least five years to implement,’ the expert argues. ‘Second, the inevitable increase in military spending will affect social welfare, which will further curtail the standard of living in the EU countries.
‘This may in turn lead to the growing popularity of non-establishment politicians the way it has already happened in Slovakia. For Russia, this perhaps constitutes the best part of it,’ says Vadim Trukhachev. However, he also admits that this scenario may boost the military-industrial complex, which will create new jobs and, militarily, make a stronger Europe.
The necessity to create a European security system without the US has been already discussed, says Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor with the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University and a Valdai Discussion Club pundit. ‘This talk has been rekindled ahead of the US presidential election. The EU is wary of Donald Trump returning to the White House,’ the expert explains.
Europeans are aligning their planning horizon with the US electoral cycles. ‘During the election campaign, they are assessing the risks and trying to limit the damage in case the candidate they do not like ends up winning,’ Stanislav Tkachenko says citing Trump. According to him, ‘Europeans are panic-stricken’ because the Trump presidency does not bode well for them.
‘His first term in office marked a paradigm shift in the US–EU relations. After Biden won the previous election, the Europeans let out a sigh of relief as Trump’s steps were rescinded. Now the pendulum may once again swing in the opposite direction,’ says the commentator.
‘Fully aware of this prospect, the EU has to ponder the Plan B yet again. But so far, their efforts have been ephemeral as the European officials are pinning their hopes on Germany and expecting it to lay out the blueprint, whereas Olaf Scholz boards a flight to DC. In other words, the Plan B looks seriously flawed,’ Stanislav Tkachenko comments.
‘True, Europe has made a few steps towards its own security system, but these are not nearly enough. As they put their strategic thinking capacities on pause, they fully relied in Washington to deploy their protective nuclear umbrella. There was no backup plan whatsoever. That is why it is highly unlikely that Europe will be able to put together its own defence system,’ the expert concludes.