The UN ‘Srebrenica genocide’ resolution has sent shockwaves through Serbian communities everywhere. Some are dreading the possibility of a new war. Others envision a potential favourable ‘Balkanisation’ of Bosnia. On the one hand, the West has accomplished its real goals that were a far cry from their alleged motives. On the other hand, the UN vote has yet again pointed to the diminishing influence of both the US and the EU.
Nonetheless the vote still exposed some significant gaps in the narrative. True, Algeria’s abstention did not come as a surprise considering its current secular government’s beefs with the US and the EU. Syria’s conflict with the West lies even deeper, so no wonder Mali, the venue of the anti-French coup, and Syria became the only two Muslim countries to vote against the resolution. But the reason – or the drivers – behind the UAE’s abstention was far more mysterious. Trying to unravel it will be as difficult as writing a PhD thesis on the intricate Balkan history.
The traditionally Western bloc countries that abstained included Greece, Cyprus (both being historically sympathetic with the Serbs and averse to the Muslims) and Slovakia that has been challenging the Brussels calls for quite a while now. Its stance could in part explain the recent assassination attempt on the country’s PM Robert Fico who is now recovering in a hospital bed. In the meantime, Hungary whose PM Viktor Orbán has been at loggerheads with the EU for much longer went a step further and said no to the proposition. Chances are, their vote was influenced by Orbán’s longtime friendship with Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska.
As a result, the project designed to patch up the chasm between the West and the Muslim world was only supported by the West’s longstanding satellites from Asia, the Americas, Africa and Oceania, constituting a smaller part of the world’s nations. ‘This was a botched resolution, which means the UN did not support it. Their plan to ram the genocide claims and the moral disqualification down the Serbs’ throats has failed,’ commented Dodik.
Thus, even the president of Republika Srpska is happy with the outcome since the resolution will help the Bosnian Serbs rally behind him. Previously, the West was trying to challenge Dodik’s status as the regional Serbian leader, only to reinforce his standing and to add the momentum to his peaceful disassociation plan whereby Republika Srpska could secede from Bosnia and possibly join Serbia.
Dodik vows to pitch his proposal within a month’s time. He seemed to be waiting for the opportune moment. ‘After what has happened, we have no reason to stay together,’ he snapped.
As for Serbia’s Serbs who were kept off the edge of their seats by the NYC proceedings, President Aleksandar Vučić apparently has not lost his political acumen and made the most of the UN vote. The fuss surrounding the session along with multiple talks, interviews and demonstrations of the national symbols – in short, an already lost battle – fitted his cause and hyped him up as a valiant upholder of the Serbian national interests.
The thing is, had he not protected those interests fighting against the resolution, it would not have changed things a notch. The resolution would have been adopted anyway as there was no conceivable way of the global Muslim community refusing to back their own lot. But more importantly, the resolution has no legal effects and can be downright ignored, as is the case with Israel whose military effort is resulting in Muslim civilian deaths right now. Except Israel’s flouting the resolutions goes together with its occasional accusations of the UN as being a seat of anti-Semitism.
However, Vučić decided to act and show his country it was being run by a proactive, patriotic and assertive leader, which means the Serbian Serbs can be happy too.
Vučić is the kind of politician who rolls his eyes muttering to the nation about the upcoming bad times courtesy of the West. But once the prophesied bad times turn out to be quite regular, he is quick to give himself credit. This strategy that could otherwise be deemed a cheesy political show-off is in fact the Serbian president’s forte or, as mentioned above, part of his political acumen.
That asset helped Vučić one-up the domestic political field endorsed by the West, while avoid Serbia’s descent into a Ukraine-style dictatorship. That asset alone helps Belgrade strike a balance between the West and Russia without ruffling anyone’s feathers or sacrificing its own interests.
If Serbia were to be governed by a leader with less political craftsmanship, they would have long ago sanctioned Russia and recognised the Kosovo authorities, thus damaging the Serbs. For years Vučić has been adeptly slaloming his way through these challenges without throwing anyone or anything, including his home country’s own interests, under the proverbial bus. Add to this an average hand he has been holding all along, with Serbia being notoriously dependent on the EU economy-wise and disadvantaged as a landlocked country.
This time his classy act has earned him yet another round of applause in the wake of something, truth be told, really meaningless.
However, this is not to say there is not going to be a new war in Bosnia or Kosovo. Unfortunately, this is always a possibility in the Balkans, albeit often a very long shot. But once every 50 years or so, it does tend to erupt as if proving the clichéd byname for the region: the powder keg of Europe.