The ‘traffic light’ coalition in the Republic of Germany is close to splitting up. The Financial Times reported that the divisions between the three parties are so critical that the prospects of having an early election to the Bundestag is getting more real. How likely is this scenario, who would claim a victory and what will this mean for the crisis in Ukraine?
The FT has reported a possible dissolving of the ruling coalition in Germany. According to the newspaper, Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosted an industrial summit without inviting the finance and economy ministers. The parliament leader’s actions caused disappointment inside ‘the traffic light’ coalition and enhanced gossiping around holding an early Bundestag election already in spring 2025.
It is noted that March 9 will be the possible date of the election. Despite the economic stagnation and likely closures of Volkswagen plants, not all politicians are ready to bear with the governance crisis. For example, the finance minister Christian Lindner stated that the government must organise itself to work together for the sake of Germany.
Just to remind, the ruling coalition in Germany includes three parties: the social democrats, the Greens and the free democrats. They often call this alliance ‘a traffic light’ in line with the colours of the factions it includes. The government’s key challenge today is the lengthy approval of 2025 budget.
At the same time, according to FT, a potential victory of Donald Trump at the presidential election can unite the coalition. Germany might demonstrate leadership in EU in the current political context, however, the divisions inside the Bundestag are only getting stronger, which hinders joint efforts.
These circumstances are influencing the level of support of the current government by the society. The coalition power has significantly weakened in the east of the country. For example, at the election of lands’ parliaments the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Chancellor Scholz beat the Alternative for Germany (AfD) by a margin of 1.5 per cent.
In Thuringia, the right faction took the first place with 32.8 per cent of the votes. The top three did not include any of ‘the traffic light’ parties. Furthermore, the Christian Democrats became leaders in Saxony with 30.6 per cent of the votes. But AfD had a gap of just 1.3 per cent behind.
‘Germany’s ruling coalition is breaking up. The leaders of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) have quarrelled. ‘Against this backdrop, there are few chances they will continue governing the country until the regular election in September 2025’, said Alexander Rahr, a German political commentator.
At the same time, all the three factions making up the ruling coalition in the German government have ‘catastrophically low ratings’, the expert reminded. He believes it is highly likely that an early election will bring the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to power. ‘If this is the case Friedrich Merz might take the Chancellor role replacing Scholz already in March’, the political expert pointed out.
However, CDU will not be able to gain more than 30 per cent of voters’ support and it will have to form a coalition-based government, Rahr believes. ‘As the Free Democrats are marginalised, the Greens and SPD are CDU’s remaining partners’, goes on the expert.
‘Many in the CDU leadership would prefer a coalition with the Greens. With this, Annalena Baerbock will keep her position of Germany’s foreign affairs minister. A partnership with social democrats will mean that Boris Pistorius will become Vice Chancellor and a resignation for Mr. Scholz’, Rahr says.
An early election is quite probable, admits Waldemar Herdt, a former Bundestag member. ‘To be frank, the need to dissolve ‘the traffic light’ coalition has long been overdue. Everyone is tired of it. The opposition keeps criticising the ruling parties for contested decisions and the society no longer trusts that the power is rational. I think even Scholz himself is tired of the situation as-is’, said the expert.
‘Because the coalition was considered problematic from the beginning. Politicians tried to combine what cannot work together: socialists, liberals and the greens, each party having its own voters and upholding its own set of ideas. Their perspectives on Germany’s outlook are fully opposed. An efficient power cannot be minted with such inputs’, he believes.
‘They created a creature with many heads and everyone started pulling the blanket their way. The factions even lost their proper identities. The Greens, for example, unexpectedly became the most aggressive political force in the country supporting Ukraine most actively. This is nonsense: German citizens are really struggling to understand what is happening’, emphasizes the speaker.
‘So ‘the traffic light coalition’ would be happy to dissolve. People are not ready to vote for such an alliance, while the parties can still compete for voters separately. In any case, CDU will secure a victory at the spring election campaign. AfD’s and Sahara Wagenknecht Alliance’s positions will also get stronger’, notes the expert.
‘The German society will take such a result positively. After all, this government will reflect political views of most citizens. But the tension between those supporting the right and the Christians will grow further. Yet, it is not getting to a critical level’, Herdt believes.
‘Washington and Brussels will take a change of power in Germany calmly. It was U.S., which supported the creation of ‘the traffic light coalition’ before, as the main objective the White House when it comes to Berlin is full degradation of its economic capabilities. However, Scholz and his team were working to implement these plans so eagerly that it even shocked the States’, he believes. ‘CDU is a more sound party. Germany will continue losing its positions in the international arena, but at a slower pace. Even if the Christians want to work for improvements, the dependency on Washington will not let them do it’, the speaker believes.
‘Germany’s well-being relies on cheap Russian energy resources. But they will not be able to establish a dialogue with Russia without a permission to do so from U.S. The main points of the German politics will remain unchanged: no one will revisit the view on the Ukrainian crisis and protect the country from ruining its industries. Unfortunately, local parliamentarians do not have the sufficient will to do this’, says Herdt.
The parties within the ruling coalition are struggling to find agreement on main home policy issues, reminds Artem Sokolov, a research fellow at the Centre for International Studies. ‘They even fail to approve the budget, despite this matter is of great importance for the future course of the country’, he says ironically. ‘The main problem of the coalition is that it emerged at a critically different time. In 2021, all the stakeholders supported working on Angela Merkel’s course further. They also implied slightly tense relations with Russia, yet not excluding cooperation’, adds the expert.
‘So, the coalition members thought along the same lines indeed. Of course, they understood they cannot avoid divisions in some matters, but the status of the affairs four years back did not urge them to take decisions hastily. Politicians were able to discuss different matters for quite a long time’, comments the speaker.
‘But the conflict in Ukraine changed everything. Authorities had to act fast, which the coalition was not really ready to do. All this led to lengthy approvals of any initiatives. Against this backdrop, social approval of the government’s work has been reducing’, believes Sokolov. ‘Most probably, an early election will be held. CDU/CSU will win to form a coalition with SPD. The Christians are getting a chance to regain power with triumph, having acquired utmost trust of the people. The right will hardly get anything’, he continues.
‘AfD and BSW will be able to gain significant support, but they do not have enough capacities to become a truly powerful faction in the Bundestag. Yet, their impact will be growing. People will gradually treat these opposition parties in a more serious and balanced way’, says the expert.
‘However, one should not expect major changes in Berlin’s policies. Friedrich Merz, who is most likely to become Chancellor, is supporting the transatlantic track. I do not think he is really ready to refuse to support Ukraine and by starting to build a dialogue with Moscow’, Sokolov concluded.