Russia has allowed for a possibility of supplying long-range weapons to those states in conflict with the Western states. Experts believe that such a step could be an efficient response to Western supplies of similar weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces. Which states could that be?
Moscow will consider possible responses to NATO’s permission to use long-range weapons for strikes on Russia. Vladimir Putin mentioned this at a meeting with heads of news agencies in the margins of St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). He also named potential measures Russia could take to respond to NATO members’ actions.
‘If someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to attack our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same class to regions of the world where there will be strikes on sensitive facilities of those countries?’, the official Kremlin’s website quotes the Russian president.
Moscow’s answer may be symmetrical, Putin assumed. ‘We reserve the right to act in a similar way. But, in general, this is the path to very serious problems’, he said. The Russian president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov added that the leadership of Western states ‘had anticipated this statement’. By the way, the wide spread of the Russian leader’s words in American and European press confirms this.
‘Many have gone pondering with hope. The Middle East appears to have greatest hopes’, notes Fyodor Lukyanov, Chief Editor, Russia in Global Affairs, Research Director, Valdai Discussion Club. The experts interviewed by VZ have a similar opinion. They believe that each of the NATO states has its own weaknesses.
USA
‘The U.S. has a huge number of military bases located across the world. So, we need to target the actors trying to counter Washington’s hegemony. One of the first places that comes to mind is the Middle East where the deployed American troops are having great issues’, said Vadim Kozyulin, a military expert, Head of the Institute of Contemporary International Studies, MFA of Russia.
For instance, Russia could increase long-range weapons supplies to Syria, and on quite lawful grounds. At the same time, the Americans have their occupation forces deployed there, while pumping energy commodities from SAR’s oil rich areas. That is why acting against their military bases and the infrastructure seems to be more logical.
‘Moreover, the Houthis have been increasingly active in this region. They are an independent group at most, capable of striking numerous sites and targets, which very often include US military bases and hardware’, the expert clarifies.
The potential support of anti-American forces in Iraq and other states locating US military assets offers more prospects. By the way, such assets have been targeted in the recent months in the context of the escalation in Gaza, yet they can be scaled up too.
The Middle East region can become just a part of the common efforts in this area. For example, a group of four Russian Navy ships was reported to head for the Caribbean on Thursday evening. They are the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, the tanker Academic Pashin and the rescue tug Nikolay Chiker, which will call at Havana, Cuba, TASS reports.
‘Neither of the ships carries nuclear weapons, so their berthing in our country does not pose a threat to the region’, said the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces in a statement. However, the Associated Press has already dubbed this visit ‘a show of force’ by Moscow and assumed the ships would call at Venezuela’s port soon.
Great Britain
‘Being an island state, Britain is very much dependent on sea trade routes. To deal with it, Russia could try to step up its cooperation with the states wishing to be active in the Red Sea areas. Any turmoil in the region can slow down the delivery of critical cargoes, which will seriously affect Britain’s wellbeing’, Kozyulin stressed.
Besides, in doing this, both long-range weapons supplies and provision of up-to-date evidence for target indication are important. In other words, Russia’s partners can receive information of a ship’s whereabouts and route at a particular moment and further have local military forces make a well-aimed shot at this ship. As the French say in such cases – ‘this is not an escalation of the conflict’.
‘London can be influenced in a non-military way. For example, some powers could tamper with transatlantic cables in neutral waters bringing problems not only for Britain, but for Europe, too’, adds Vadim Trukhachev, Associate Professor, Chair of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy, Russian State University of Humanities.
Supporting separatists in the territory of the United Kingdom will also be quite noticeable, Vasily Yegorov, an expert on Britain, believes. ‘Northern Ireland is quite a promising option in this regard. There are still plenty of London’s opponents there willing to fight against its power whatever it takes’, the expert believes.
‘The Falkland (Malvina) Islands issue should not be underestimated either. Argentina is still hoping ‘to snatch’ these territories away someday. It is much easier to do so with Russia’s help’, he stressed. Indirect support of the networks engaged in transporting migrants from France to Britain is another avenue.
‘If they do get more boats from somewhere, many more people could be able to reach the islands. And Paris will not be against it. On the contrary, getting rid of these people is its ultimate interest’, Yegorov believes.
France
‘Paris is going through a very tough period trying to preserve its influence in West Africa. Of course, the people of this region are ready for a fierce combat with their own sovereignty at stake. Russia can support their aspirations by creating new problems for France in this continent’, Kozyulin emphasized.
In his turn, Trukhachev draws the attention to the separatism issues in disputed overseas territories. ‘New Caledonia has recently made itself heard aloud. It is not a big deal for Paris when Azerbaijan tries to rock the boat there, but it is always possible to make the situation worse. There are more independent movements elsewhere, for example, in Polynesia and Corsica. It also makes sense to supply weapons to the African states falling beyond the influence of the Fifth Republic’, he stressed.
Germany and other countries
When it comes to Germany, it can be influenced most easily through economic means, by being brought under pressure in the energy market. As a consequence, this can intensify existing problems in the automotive and chemical industries, which greatly depend on cheap gas supplies. Germany is also facing migration risks.
‘However, it is important not to over-focus on Russia’s main opponents. The pressure on the West should be comprehensive. For example, the Netherlands own the oil-rich Antilles in the Caribbean. These resources are ultimately used to produce fuel for the Ukrainian army. There are quite influential separatist groups in this region. Besides, Venezuela, which is friendly to Russia, is quite well placed not too far away. And there are quite a bunch of similar examples across the world’, Trukhachev concludes.