Europe is moving on with militarisation. EC head Ursula von der Leyen suggested transforming EU into a defence union and building joint anti-missile defence and cyber security systems. But will Borrell successfully implement such ambitious plans and what problems will von der Leyen face forming a defence union?
European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen intends to turn EU into a defence union. She declared this in a statement on her political programme within her second term after the re-election. In particular, the EC head intends to increase security expenses significantly and set new approaches to step up EU member states’ military capabilities.
‘The last several years have exposed the chronic under investment and a lack of efficient spending in our military capabilities’, she underlines. According to the data she quotes, from 1999 to 2021, the EU increased spending on defence by 20 per cent, while in that time, Russia’s defence spending increased by almost 300 per cent and China’s by almost 600 per cent.
The EC head stated that EU members’ spending is too disjointed and not in line with adopted standards. According to her, EU member states will retain responsibility for their own troops’ doctrine and deployment, but there is a lot Europe can do to support and coordinate efforts to strengthen the defence industrial base.
Von der Leyen also reaffirmed she would appoint a Commissioner for Defence. The Commissioner’s mandate will include the supervision over the initiatives related to the improvement of the union’s security: the integrated air-defence and cyber defence systems.
EC head’s proposal received negative feedback in Russia. In particular, the Russian president’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that such projects are pointing at EU’s commitment to confrontational steps in its foreign policy. Besides, the head of Russian MFA Sergey Lavrov called EU a NATO’s sidekick at a press conference following-up on a UN Security Council meeting.
Experts believe that, political-wise, von der Leyen’s initiative looks like an attempt to safeguard NATO in case Donald Trump takes over the power in US, with him wishing ‘to make Europe pay for its security’. However, from the military and economic standpoint, her plans look hardly feasible.
‘Ursula von der Leyen wants to turn Europe into a stronghold. Sharp changes in rhetoric are also seen among other representatives of the EU leadership. Their leaders used to brag about economic success or the developed legal framework, but today they call for restoring the former strength capacity’, said Alexander Rahr, a German political scientist.
‘Of course, Europeans’ mentality will evolve by all means, but all this sparks a simple, yet a valid question: where will the money for modernization and rebuilding military capabilities come from? It is obvious that von der Leyen’s proposal will make EU states increase their security expenses significantly’, he clarifies.
‘However, there are no signs of an economic growth onset in the European Union. Other challenges are also getting worse: social tensions are increasing, with right forces gradually taking the helm in some states. Developing defence industry in such a context will be hard’, the speaker emphasises.
‘At the same time, EU states, which are not part of NATO, will also be dragged into the weapon race. If there is a strategic need, NATO is ready for an urgent deployment of bases in the territory of small countries, which are not part of NATO. However, many states will not sustain living in the new reality’, the expert underlines.
‘Certainly, there are serious disagreements inside Europe about the need to escalate relations with Russia. But currently there is almost no peace movement in the EU, like this was the case just 40 year ago, for an active opposition to the militarisation of the Old World. Of course, there will be protests against the increase of defence expenses, but they will not have much leverage’, Rahr elaborates.
Europeans have always had problems with financing their military initiatives, adds Vadim Kozyulin, Head of IAMP Centre at MFA Diplomatic Academy. ‘To begin with, EU states struggled to secure NATO defence budget contributions worth 2 per cent of their GDPs for a long time’, he notes. ‘Only this year there has been some progress in this area. The idea of having a European defence union is not new. It roots back in the previous century, and Emmanuel Macron has supported it recently in his statements. But no one has managed to gain much success in this area’, the expert emphasises.
‘This initiative faces many issues. Building an air-defence shield is, probably, the best example. First, whose weapons will be the basis for the European-wide air defence? Each state will start ‘hogging the blanket’ wishing to get more contracts for their local defence industries’, the speaker clarifies.
‘Besides, such a large-scale project spanning a bunch of countries will require utmost coordination among military agencies of various states. For success, the EU will need to overcome the eternal red tape issue. The common air defence system will work perfectly with maximum alignment of all the association members’, underlines Kozyulin.
At the same time, non-bloc states within the EU, like Austria, Cyprus, Malta and Ireland, will not hamper the creation of a defence union, says Vadim Trukhachev, Associate Professor, Foreign Region Research Chair, Russian State University for Humanities. ‘Let’s take the example of Austria. This country has had quite close cooperation with NATO for a few decades already’, he says.
‘It is also quite a strong producer of weapons, which are designed meeting all Alliance’s standards. Moreover, Vienna was one of the originators of the EU’s defence programme, which Ursula von der Leyen is logically trying to develop’, notes the speaker.
‘Joining NATO, if needed, or enhancing its military integration with other countries will not be a big deal for Austria in future. The material base for doing so is mostly in place already. They just need the political resolve to amend their constitution. The same can be said of smaller non-bloc EU countries. Technically, integrating them into NATO’s architecture will be easy’, adds the expert.