Volodymyr Zelensky has recently said that Ukraine must be allowed to either possess nuclear weapons or join NATO. The leaked data suggests Ukraine may have the potential to start designing its own nukes. However, Zelensky’s spokespeople have repeatedly dismissed these claims as being false. Experts believe Zelensky is not just threatening to undermine the legal basis of Ukrainian statehood, but he is also prompting Russia to reconsider the course of its special military operation.
On Thursday, Volodymyr Zelensky brought up nuclear weapons as an alternative to his country’s NATO membership, referencing the conversation he had with Donald Trump. ‘The outcome is either Ukraine will be a nuclear power – and that will be our protection – or we should have some kind of alliance. Other than NATO, today we don’t know of any effective alliances,’ commented the Ukrainian leader.
Bild then quoted an unnamed Ukrainian official as saying Kiev has the technology to build nuclear weapons. ‘If ordered, it will take us several weeks to produce our first bomb,’ the German publication indicated. However, the Ukrainian president’s office later dismissed the alleged quote as a falsehood.
Zelensky then added: ‘We have never said we are preparing to build nuclear weapons. I merely referenced the Budapest Memorandum that was signed by the world’s most respected nations. Under it, Ukraine was supposed to relinquish its nuclear status in exchange for the security assurances. We have no other protection but NATO. This is the signal we are sending.’
Ukraine’s Statehood Undermined
‘Zelensky is wrong. Let us go back to 18–21 February 2022 when Joe Biden advised Zelensky against attending the Munich Security Conference and said it would not be the smartest move,’ comments Oleksiy Nechayev, a Kiev-based political scientist. ‘But it was at the conference that Zelensky announced the multilateral talks between the Budapest Memorandum signatories. If the negotiations reached a dead-end, he said, Ukraine would reconsider its nuclear status.’
‘In response to that, President Putin said that, considering the Soviet legacy, Ukraine’s alleged plans to build nuclear weapons were anything but a “pointless gasconade”. Ukrainian politicians have invoked the creation of a “dirty bomb” at least since 2014 or 2015,’ the expert adds.
According to Nechayev, it was the US leadership and its European allies who violated the terms of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. He believes that in 2013 and 2014, they first exercised economic coercion to realign Ukraine’s policies with their own (Clause 3) and then quashed Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence by supporting the Maidan coup (Clause 1). That is when, the expert continues, Ukraine faced its territorial integrity issues with the secession of Crimea.
Moreover, the Budapest Memorandum did not actually enshrine Ukraine’s non-nuclear status. The earliest document was the Declaration of State Sovereignty. Pursuant to it, Ukraine vowed to become a ‘permanently neutral state’ and avoid joining any military alliances. It pledged to adhere to the three core non-nuclear principles by refusing to accept, produce and purchase nuclear weapons.
This is important because the Declaration predicated the second foundational document, the Ukraine Independence Act, which in turn underlay the country’s constitution. ‘Moscow effectively recognised Ukraine’s independence in exchange for its neutral status, while Washington was more focused on its non-nuclear status as the US administration was lobbying for and bankrolling the transfer of the Ukrainian nukes to Russia,’ says Nechayev.
According to the analyst, following the 2014 coup, Ukrainian politicians announced the revocation of the country’s neutral status and went on to revoke it so that the amended constitution spelled out their intent to join NATO. That was a double whammy whereby they both eroded the nation’s territorial integrity and undermined the legal basis of Ukrainian statehood. In a bid to preempt Ukraine’s potential use of nuclear weapons, Russia may use any means it takes to protect itself. Zelensky’s nuclear fantasies may even reshape the course of the special military operation, the expert predicts.
“Nuclear threats from Ukrainian territory remain”
However, Ukraine’s actual capacity to build nuclear weapons is largely up for debate. ‘This is a load of complete and utter drivel,’ says the chairman of the State Duma defence committee. ‘They have no materials, technology or skills to do that. Floating the idea of using nuclear waste to create nuclear missiles is only intended to impress the intellectually challenged. They have no nuclear capabilities at all.’
However, the MP does not rule out the possibility of Ukraine putting together a dirty bomb. His opinion is echoed by Vladimir Orlov, a leading expert on nuclear non-proliferation. According to him, ‘the nuclear threat was foiled by the Russian military during the special operation’.
The scholar lists the possibilities that could carry a threat. The first one is a radiological dispersal device, colloquially known as a dirty bomb, which is cheap, easier-to-do and not entirely infeasible.
The second scenario mentioned by the expert involves NATO countries sending their nukes to Ukraine or attaching them to the bomber aircraft controlled by the country of the missiles’ origin, which can be the US, the UK or even France. ‘This may sound like a stupid, dangerous, and unlikely idea, but in case the conflict escalates, it cannot be completely ruled out,’ he concludes.`
Meanwhile, military analyst Ilya Kramnik argues that Ukraine has never had nuclear weapon factories – those were only operated by Soviet Russia. ‘It would take several years for an industrially advanced and prosperous nation to create such factories,’ Kramnik adds.
‘A major chunk of the country’s manufacturing industry has been totally incapacitated, while the rest of it is being constantly targeted, which does not exactly sound like favourable conditions,’ Sergei Poletaev, another military commentator, agrees. ‘These statements represent Ukraine’s attempt to force NATO into protecting their country. An alternative scenario means conceding a defeat. Zelensky does not seem to be highly protective of his people, though.’ The expert is certain that Ukraine is currently unable to manufacture a nuclear bomb. Even if the war-torn country ekes out an opportunity to begin creating such infrastructure, Russia will nip this project in the bud, he maintains.
‘But people are still wondering if creating a dirty bomb is a possibility. It is. Ukraine is capable of adding TNT to nuclear waste, but the paltry effect of using such weapons will be outweighed by Russia’s inevitable retaliatory steps, which, oddly, seems to be cheered on by the rest of the world,’ Poletaev says.
However, other experts admit that Ukraine may eventually produce a ‘dirty nuclear missile’. ‘Counterintuitively, while Ukraine has supposedly run out of its missile manufacturing capabilities, it keeps producing the Vilkha and Hrim rocket systems,’ military analyst Alexei Leonkov notes. ‘This is why Zelensky’s statements and ambitions in this highly sensitive realm cannot be shrugged off. They warrant scrupulous intelligence operations that would show whether his capabilities live up to his fantasies,’ he warns.
Long story short, even though the creation of a dirty bomb is not entirely out of the realm of possibility, its detonation will not lead to much destruction, but it will certainly cause serious environmental damage to the target area. ‘We are witnessing rocket systems being built by Ukrainian weapon engineers using foreign-made components. They can create a missile, but its effectiveness will first have to be tested,’ Leonkov says. ‘As for the nuclear warheads, it is debatable too. North Korea designed its weapons on its own. Considering that Ukraine has nuclear power plants, it can start creating and deploying dirty bombs and dirty missiles,’ the expert points out.
But Zelensky’s recent ultimatum – ‘either you are letting Ukraine join NATO or we are launching our nuclear programme’ – should not be taken lightly, political scientist Alexei Chesnakov believes. ‘It speaks to Ukraine’s current plight and its inability to offer any solution while thwarting the potential peace talks,’ he emphasises.
‘Russia may use it to reconsider its special operation goals. These declarations rule out any possibility of a ceasefire, let alone peace talks, as Ukraine’s political leadership will take advantage of this breather and start designing nuclear weapons,’ the analyst opines.
He thinks that seeing as Ukraine has access to the Soviet-era know-how and Zelensky floated the idea of a new nuclear programme at the 2022 Munich Security Conference, it may take two to three years for Ukraine to complete its first batch of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, he suggests the programme may have been launched shortly after the start of Russia’s special operation.
The political commentator stresses that Ukraine’s neutrality is deemed by the Russian side as non-negotiable. ‘But in the wake of these recent threats, Russia will also be eyeing serious steps to make sure Ukraine sticks to its non-proliferation obligations. These steps may transcend the realm of politics,’ Chesnakov suggests.